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Game Recap
WSH2
CAR4
CAR beat WSH 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.32 expected goals to 2.86. CAR outshot WSH 45 to 21. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Aho had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. P. Kochetkov stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 14:01CARD. Orlov0.02 xG
- 1st 19:16WSHA. OvechkinPP0.11 xG
- 1st 19:49WSHB. Duhaime0.87 xG
- 2nd 2:29CARM. Necas0.10 xG
- 2nd 5:26CARD. Orlov0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:51CARA. SvechnikovEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
WSHCAR
21Shots on goal45
2.86Expected goals4.32
43Shot attempts77
135v5 shots on goal36
1/4Power play0/3
20Hits10
16Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways14
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.86 xGCAR 4.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 5:34 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 3:07 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:30 | 0:15 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:15 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:07 | 2:22 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:48 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:47 | 4:13 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:02 | 0:06 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:41 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 1:32 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:59 | 0:10 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:46 | 0:27 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:10 | 4:14 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:59 | 0:26 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:22 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:36 | 1:28 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 44 | 41 | 3 | .932 | 58:41 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 17:27 | 4:37 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:34 | 4:38 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:10 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 4:39 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 3:39 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:16 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:11 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:33 | 1:08 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:02 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 2:11 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:50 | 1:23 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:21 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:24 | 4:45 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.4, CAR 3.7 | WSH 2, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 23.2, CAR 34.1 | WSH 21, CAR 45 |
| Win chance | CAR 70% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.8 | 5 | 0.96 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.8 | 3 | 0.86 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 7 | 1.13 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.65 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.7 | 3 | 0.42 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.6 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.9 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.