CAR beat WSH 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 2.54. CAR outshot WSH 31 to 21. J. Blake led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Walker had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. F. Andersen stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 6:14CARS. Walker0.02 xG
- 1st 10:11CARJ. BlakePP0.13 xG
- 1st 13:21CARS. JarvisPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 9:27CARL. Stankoven0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:25WSHA. OvechkinPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 6:55CARJ. BlakePP0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.54 xGCAR 3.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 6:16 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18:37 | 4:58 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 17:15 | 4:48 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:09 | 3:04 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:10 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:47 | 1:17 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 11:37 | 1:16 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 23:41 | 3:22 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:08 | 4:50 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:04 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:55 | 1:15 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 12 | 9 | 3 | .750 | 20:00 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 40:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:48 | 4:18 |
| J. Blake | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 5:37 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 5:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 3:30 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:48 | 5:30 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 12 | 14:02 | 1:57 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:06 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:12 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 14 | 11:21 | 0:09 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:53 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 15 | 7:35 | 0:32 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 19:00 | 5:43 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:25 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:34 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:25 | 2:49 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.8, CAR 3.4 | WSH 1, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 23.8, CAR 30.9 | WSH 21, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.8 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 0 | 0.97 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 5 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 1.9 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 6 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.5 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.