Game Recap: WSH 2, CHI 3, December 17, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH2

FinalTue, Dec 17, 2024Every game that night

CHI3

CHI beat WSH 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.54 expected goals to 2.36. T. Teravainen led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. Murphy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. A. Soderblom stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	0	0	2
CHI	0	0	3	3

1st 4:16WSHP. Dubois0.20 xG
1st 13:18WSHA. Mangiapane0.25 xG
3rd 0:51CHII. MikheyevSH0.16 xG
3rd 14:07CHIT. Brodie0.04 xG
3rd 17:42CHIR. Donato0.07 xG

Team Stats

WSHCHI

22Shots on goal23

2.36Expected goals1.54

48Shot attempts53

165v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/4

12Hits13

15Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways15

0Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.36 xGCHI 1.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH22 on goal, 2 scored

CHI23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dubois	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	16:04	1:22
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	13:10	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	13:02	1:11
J. Vrana	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	8:11	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:35	2:44
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	17:30	2:44
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	2	17:20	2:44
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:54	0:16
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:59	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36	0:16
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:33	0:55
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	10:44	1:27
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	23:52	2:44
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	22:29	2:42
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	19:41	0:34
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	18:33	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	0	18:32	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:15	1:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	23	20	3	.870	59:14	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Teravainen	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	+3	0	15:03	2:09
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	13:55	0:02
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:59	5:56
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:29	6:01
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	18:59	6:26
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:43	2:19
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	16:40	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:27	5:33
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:23	0:02
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:58	1:58
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	9:33	1:14
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	4:46	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	4	2	4	0	2	24:56	0:20
T. Brodie	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:07	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	26:20	6:06
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	17:22	0:02
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:15	1:52
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	15:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	22	20	2	.909	59:40	Win
D. Commesso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAndrew Mangiapane CHI Faces WSH, his team until May 20251 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, CHI 2.7	WSH 2, CHI 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	WSH 28.5, CHI 26.4	WSH 22, CHI 23
Win chance	WSH 57%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	2	0.87	0	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.4	4	0.63	0	28%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.3	1	0.55	1	22%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	1	0.56	0	14%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	3	0.64	0	28%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	3	0.64	0	11%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.0	1	0.94	0	28%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.9	2	0.58	0	22%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	2	0.57	0	16%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	2	0.59	0	24%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.63	1	23%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	2	0.63	3	22%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	2	0.39	2	18%	1
WSH J. Vrana	1.5	1	0.39	1	20%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.5	0	0.34	1	15%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.5	0	0.46	0	17%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.4	1	0.41	1	18%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.4	1	0.31	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.4	0	0.33	0	6%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.40	0	18%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	4	0.24	1	7%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	0	0.31	0	11%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.2	1	0.35	0	17%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	1.2	0	0.18	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	2	0.36	0	18%	0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	1.1	1	0.28	0	10%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.37	0	7%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	3	0.28	0	9%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	1	0.22	0	5%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	1	0.15	0	5%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	2	0.25	1	3%	1
CHI N. Allan	0.5	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.