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Game Recap
WSH5
COL2
WSH beat COL 5-2, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 1.77. C. McMichael led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Lindgren stopped 17 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| COL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:00COLP. Kelly0.01 xG
- 1st 4:25WSHJ. VranaPP0.05 xG
- 1st 7:48WSHC. McMichael0.10 xG
- 2nd 1:53WSHC. McMichael0.09 xG
- 2nd 4:03COLN. Kovalenko0.08 xG
- 2nd 9:21WSHJ. Chychrun0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:57WSHR. SandinEN0.73 xG
Team Stats
WSHCOL
20Shots on goal19
2.21Expected goals1.77
41Shot attempts64
175v5 shots on goal17
1/2Power play0/1
18Hits15
18Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways14
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.21 xGCOL 1.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McMichael | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:07 | 2:30 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:52 | 1:05 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:41 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 3:46 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 18:02 | 2:43 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 1:16 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:54 | 1:03 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:28 | 2:32 |
| R. Sandin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 1:14 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 6:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:10 | 1:59 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:06 | 1:59 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:31 | 1:59 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:25 | 1:59 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:01 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:01 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:01 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:01 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:47 | 1:59 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:01 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 21:53 | Loss |
| T. Miner | 13 | 12 | 1 | .923 | 34:58 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, COL 3.6 | WSH 5, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.5, COL 32.0 | WSH 20, COL 19 |
| Win chance | COL 62% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.6 | 0 | 1.78 | 0 | 44% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.3 | 1 | 1.43 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.9 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.8 | 1 | 1.03 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.8 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 3 | 1.07 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 2.1 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.1 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 2.0 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.9 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.