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Game Recap
WSH1
DAL3
DAL beat WSH 3-1, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 2.90. R. Hintz led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Roy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DAL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 15:39WSHD. Strome0.07 xG
- 2nd 13:28DALR. HintzPP0.38 xG
- 2nd 17:35DALL. Bichsel0.02 xG
- 3rd 14:58DALR. Hintz0.18 xG
Team Stats
WSHDAL
26Shots on goal24
2.90Expected goals3.25
59Shot attempts45
215v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play1/2
22Hits15
14Blocked shots15
11Penalty minutes15
15Giveaways10
8Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.90 xGDAL 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 4:50 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 3:04 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 4:03 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:39 | 4:51 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:08 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:22 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 3:02 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 3:37 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:02 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10:36 | 0:02 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:21 | 5:12 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 24:19 | 4:57 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 2:46 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:02 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:11 | 0:02 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 57:42 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:06 | 1:05 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:08 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:18 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:15 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:33 | 1:05 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 1:11 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:05 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:03 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:06 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 30:37 | 0:08 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 27:42 | 2:14 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.8, DAL 3.3 | WSH 1, DAL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.8, DAL 30.7 | WSH 26, DAL 24 |
| Win chance | DAL 59% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.90 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.6 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 4 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.