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Game Recap
WSH2
DET4
DET beat WSH 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.10 expected goals to 2.16. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Ovechkin had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. A. Lyon stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| DET | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 3:19DETA. DeBrincat0.17 xG
- 1st 6:44DETP. KanePP0.05 xG
- 1st 12:04WSHA. Ovechkin0.07 xG
- 1st 12:35DETA. DeBrincat0.28 xG
- 1st 14:18DETL. Raymond0.15 xG
- 3rd 10:27WSHN. Dowd0.15 xG
Team Stats
WSHDET
27Shots on goal27
2.16Expected goals3.10
67Shot attempts51
205v5 shots on goal17
0/3Power play1/4
24Hits12
9Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways12
0Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.16 xGDET 3.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 5:03 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:18 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 4:44 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:23 | 4:46 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:52 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:07 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:16 | 0:17 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:34 | 4:51 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:52 | 4:56 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:17 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:09 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 58:10 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:49 | 5:39 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:42 | 5:39 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:34 | 5:26 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 5:41 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:11 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 1:06 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:26 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:55 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:01 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:49 | 4:52 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:21 | 1:45 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:16 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 20:48 | 0:25 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:18 | 0:03 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.2, DET 3.2 | WSH 2, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.1, DET 27.2 | WSH 27, DET 27 |
| Win chance | DET 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.6 | 8 | 0.79 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.5 | 5 | 0.91 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 28% | 2 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.1 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 4 | 0.87 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 0 | 0.87 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.