WSH beat EDM 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 3.61. EDM outshot WSH 32 to 14. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Brown had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. L. Thompson stopped 30 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| EDM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 3:02EDML. Draisaitl0.16 xG
- 1st 9:01WSHT. Wilson0.15 xG
- 2nd 8:14WSHM. Roy0.01 xG
- 3rd 3:49WSHP. Dubois0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:50EDMC. Perry0.03 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.27 xGEDM 3.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 15:30 | 1:43 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 4:05 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:56 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:05 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 5:35 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:21 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 4:17 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:43 | 4:55 |
| M. Roy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:31 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 4:17 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:15 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 59:49 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:41 | 5:38 |
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 2:20 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 5:38 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:42 | 5:34 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 3:43 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:23 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:19 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Philp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 22:59 | 0:26 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:07 | 4:36 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 3:23 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 14 | 11 | 3 | .786 | 57:53 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.7, EDM 3.3 | WSH 3, EDM 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 24.4, EDM 30.8 | WSH 14, EDM 32 |
| Win chance | EDM 59% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.1 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.0 | 4 | 1.38 | 2 | 44% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| EDM N. Philp | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.