Game Recap: WSH 0, LAK 3, March 13, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH0

FinalThu, Mar 13, 2025Every game that night

LAK3

LAK beat WSH 3-0, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 1.89. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Dubois had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Kuemper stopped 21 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	0	0	0
LAK	1	0	2	3

1st 13:08LAKW. Foegele0.14 xG
3rd 1:05LAKK. FialaPP0.09 xG
3rd 1:52LAKQ. Byfield0.16 xG

Team Stats

WSHLAK

21Shots on goal27

1.89Expected goals2.35

54Shot attempts50

115v5 shots on goal22

0/5Power play1/4

21Hits21

10Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes10

10Giveaways7

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 1.89 xGLAK 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH20 on goal, 0 scored

LAK27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	2	0	0	2	19:50	5:31
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	18:37	8:41
D. Strome	C	0	1	0	-1	2	18:25	5:41
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	-1	0	16:36	0:00
P. Dubois	C	6	1	0	-1	2	16:13	5:30
N. Dowd	C	1	1	0	0	0	14:59	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	0	0	14:01	3:06
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	2	0	-1	2	13:54	3:17
C. McMichael	LW	2	1	0	-2	0	13:14	3:03
B. Duhaime	LW	1	1	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
L. Eller	C	1	1	0	0	0	11:10	0:03
J. Carlson	D	1	0	2	-1	0	23:33	5:23
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	3	0	0	19:24	0:01
J. Chychrun	D	3	4	0	-2	0	18:30	3:20
M. Roy	D	0	3	2	-1	2	17:25	0:14
R. Sandin	D	2	2	2	0	0	16:25	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	1	0	0	0	0	16:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	6	2	0	+1	0	18:06	5:18
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	17:58	5:07
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	15:48	0:21
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	15:18	0:32
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:15	0:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:22	5:16
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:47	5:22
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	2	15:34	0:23
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	12:25	0:06
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	12:07	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	11:19	0:06
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:44	0:06
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	22:52	4:38
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	2	21:15	0:06
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	23:59	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:50	0:23
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:48	0:25
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+2	0	12:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	21	21	0	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDarcy Kuemper LAK Faces WSH, his team until Apr 202421 saves on 21, the win
Old teamPierre-Luc Dubois WSH Faces LAK, his team until May 20246 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, LAK 2.8	WSH 0, LAK 3
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	WSH 25.1, LAK 27.9	WSH 21, LAK 27
Win chance	WSH 50%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	0	0.78	0	34%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	3	0.79	0	32%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.5	6	0.73	2	27%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	2	0.55	1	22%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	2	0.44	0	19%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.1	0	0.53	1	22%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.0	3	0.47	0	14%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	2	0.64	1	20%	1
WSH T. Wilson	1.9	1	0.61	0	25%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	2	0.53	0	21%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	0	0.61	0	19%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	4	0.57	0	18%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	6	0.67	0	22%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.7	1	0.32	0	14%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.7	1	0.54	0	10%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.6	0	0.73	0	23%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	1	0.55	1	14%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	0	0.58	0	24%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	0	0.72	1	22%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	0	0.30	0	8%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	0	0.31	0	6%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.31	1	7%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	2	0.22	0	6%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	0	0.31	0	5%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.0	1	0.32	0	14%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.24	0	6%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	1	0.32	0	15%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.8	2	0.30	0	5%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.8	3	0.24	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	1	0.19	0	2%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.7	1	0.17	0	9%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.