Game Recap: WSH 2, MIN 4, March 27, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH2

FinalThu, Mar 27, 2025Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat WSH 4-2, with the chances close: 1.67 expected goals to 1.92. WSH outshot MIN 30 to 21. F. Gaudreau led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Chychrun had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. F. Gustavsson stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	0	0	2
MIN	1	2	1	4

1st 6:00MINJ. Merrill0.03 xG
1st 7:08WSHM. Roy0.03 xG
1st 8:49WSHB. Duhaime0.21 xG
2nd 12:25MINF. GaudreauPP0.10 xG
2nd 19:51MINM. Boldy0.04 xG
3rd 18:39MINF. GaudreauEN0.52 xG

Team Stats

WSHMIN

30Shots on goal21

1.92Expected goals1.67

74Shot attempts39

245v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play1/2

13Hits25

9Blocked shots22

4Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways15

1Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 1.92 xGMIN 1.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH30 on goal, 2 scored

MIN21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:58	0:10
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:13	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:23	0:06
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	0	11:00	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	9:58	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	20:03	2:57
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:02	2:57
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:03	4:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:02	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:16	2:57
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:16	0:53
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:43	0:57
M. Roy	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	18:13	0:11
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-2	0	22:40	2:57
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	2	22:29	0:52
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	19:12	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:13	1:03
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	17:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	20	17	3	.850	57:51	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	1	2	1	0	3	0	0	17:37	1:47
F. Gaudreau	C	2	0	2	5	0	2	0	0	17:23	1:40
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:11	1:40
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	15:13	1:58
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13:54	0:43
D. Shore	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	8:41	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:56	0:25
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:10	0:00
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:32	1:59
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:28	0:43
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	9:17	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	+1	0	9:15	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	2	5	+1	0	20:42	0:24
J. Merrill	D	1	0	1	1	0	3	+1	0	12:43	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	24:53	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	24:48	0:36
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	21:00	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCharlie Lindgren WSH Plays near home (born in Lakeville)17 saves on 20

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, MIN 2.8	WSH 2, MIN 4
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	WSH 28.1, MIN 26.8	WSH 30, MIN 21
Win chance	WSH 56%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	3	0.82	0	35%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.0	1	0.78	2	28%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	6	0.49	0	13%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	3	0.54	0	23%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	0	0.76	0	22%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.9	0	0.64	0	27%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	4	0.55	0	9%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	0	0.53	0	21%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	2	0.69	0	23%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.7	1	0.63	0	19%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.7	5	0.32	1	14%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.6	0	0.36	1	15%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.6	1	0.74	0	24%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.5	0	0.55	1	21%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	1	0.42	1	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	2	0.42	1	11%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	4	0.40	0	10%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.4	5	0.41	2	18%	2
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	0	0.34	0	8%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.4	1	0.29	0	9%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.4	2	0.33	1	5%	1
MIN G. Nyquist	1.3	0	0.49	0	16%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.24	0	14%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.1	0	0.25	1	11%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.35	0	16%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.27	1	11%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.1	0	0.34	0	15%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.34	0	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	2	0.22	1	10%	1
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	2	0.24	0	3%	0
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	1	0.32	1	15%	0
MIN J. Brazeau	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.15	1	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	1	0.12	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.