WSH beat MTL 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.65 expected goals to 2.78. WSH outshot MTL 35 to 24. T. Wilson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Chychrun had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Thompson stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 11:09MTLA. Newhook0.07 xG
- 1st 16:00MTLC. Caufield0.10 xG
- 2nd 0:33WSHP. Dubois0.04 xG
- 3rd 7:10WSHT. Wilson0.17 xG
- 3rd 11:48WSHT. Wilson0.18 xG
- 3rd 13:49WSHD. StromePP0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.65 xGMTL 2.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:31 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:15 | 3:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:04 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:48 | 4:06 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:34 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:45 | 0:58 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:01 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:37 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:01 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:58 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 23:21 | 3:59 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:39 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 | 4:04 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:33 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 2:59 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 2:59 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:35 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 2:59 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 2:59 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:49 | 0:35 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:35 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:35 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:57 | 2:59 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:14 | 2:09 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 35 | 31 | 4 | .886 | 57:33 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.1, MTL 3.0 | WSH 4, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.8, MTL 26.5 | WSH 35, MTL 24 |
| Win chance | WSH 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 5 | 0.77 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.3 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 6 | 0.57 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.63 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 1.9 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 3 | 0.52 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.