Game Recap: WSH 3, MTL 6, April 25, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH3

FinalFri, Apr 25, 2025PlayoffsEvery game that night

MTL6

MTL beat WSH 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.98 expected goals to 2.09. MTL outshot WSH 40 to 21. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Caufield had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. J. Dobes stopped 7 of 8.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	1	1	3
MTL	1	2	3	6

1st 3:20WSHC. McMichael0.19 xG
1st 19:07MTLA. Carrier0.03 xG
2nd 8:37MTLN. SuzukiPP0.14 xG
2nd 10:47WSHJ. Chychrun0.11 xG
2nd 19:51MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
3rd 2:39WSHA. Ovechkin0.20 xG
3rd 4:17MTLC. Dvorak0.01 xG
3rd 13:23MTLJ. Slafkovský0.07 xG
3rd 17:35MTLA. NewhookPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

WSHMTL

21Shots on goal40

2.09Expected goals3.98

44Shot attempts81

165v5 shots on goal31

0/2Power play2/5

26Hits45

19Blocked shots11

24Penalty minutes18

16Giveaways10

5Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.09 xGMTL 3.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH20 on goal, 3 scored

MTL40 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	16:51	3:09
C. McMichael	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:47	0:49
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:16	3:36
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	13:05	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	12:11	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	11:56	0:56
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:02	1:03
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	15:02	0:01
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	4	15:02	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12	14:41	3:03
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	12:40	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	12:00	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	-2	0	25:53	0:12
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	3	1	5	0	2	21:58	3:11
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	20:30	1:07
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	24:45	2:53
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	16:52	0:00
A. Alexeyev	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	35	30	5	.857	53:23	Loss
C. Lindgren	5	4	1	.800	6:37

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	11	2	0	+1	0	19:29	6:07
A. Newhook	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	2	15:16	1:55
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	2	22:03	7:44
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	5	3	0	+2	0	19:56	5:52
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:18	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	15:11	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	4	5	0	-1	0	15:07	2:14
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	14:50	0:03
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:37	6:10
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	6	0	-1	12	11:46	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	10:50	1:16
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:06	0:11
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	24:50	6:24
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	+1	0	24:22	1:40
A. Carrier	D	1	0	1	2	3	3	0	0	21:38	0:34
D. Savard	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	11:03	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	20:33	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	+1	2	10:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	13	11	2	.846	31:39
J. Dobes	8	7	1	.875	28:21	Win

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.4, MTL 3.0	WSH 3, MTL 6
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	WSH 27.8, MTL 25.6	WSH 21, MTL 40
Win chance	WSH 55%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	2	0.85	1	36%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	11	0.80	2	33%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	3	0.51	1	16%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.4	3	1.03	1	31%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	1	0.69	0	28%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	5	0.65	1	22%	1
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	1	0.55	1	23%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	2	0.57	0	10%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	4	0.49	1	20%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	3	0.47	1	11%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	1	0.35	1	15%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	2	0.83	1	26%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	0	0.67	0	23%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.7	2	0.26	0	13%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	3	0.40	2	17%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.5	0	0.35	1	6%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	3	0.34	0	17%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.4	0	0.31	0	9%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.4	3	0.46	1	17%	1
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	2	0.38	1	17%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.3	0	0.26	1	12%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	0	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	2	0.31	1	5%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	0	0.75	1	8%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.34	0	17%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	2	0.38	1	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.39	1	12%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
MTL E. Heineman	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	0.9	0	0.16	0	8%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	0	0.10	0	4%	0
WSH A. Alexeyev	0.8	1	0.12	0	3%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.5	0	0.15	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.