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Game Recap
WSH5
MTL2
WSH beat MTL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 1.86. WSH outshot MTL 26 to 18. B. Duhaime led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Thompson stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 1:25WSHD. Strome0.23 xG
- 2nd 10:33MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 18:32MTLC. CaufieldPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 6:39WSHB. Duhaime0.11 xG
- 3rd 16:23WSHA. Mangiapane0.05 xG
- 3rd 17:21WSHB. DuhaimeEN0.57 xG
- 3rd 19:05WSHT. WilsonEN0.84 xG
Team Stats
WSHMTL
26Shots on goal18
3.87Expected goals1.86
54Shot attempts46
165v5 shots on goal12
0/5Power play2/4
26Hits34
12Blocked shots13
10Penalty minutes12
8Giveaways12
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.87 xGMTL 1.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:25 | 6:34 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:16 | 5:52 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:40 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:26 | 3:22 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:55 | 8:47 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 3:23 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 26:15 | 5:51 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 25:13 | 6:11 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:27 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:45 | 3:03 |
| A. Alexeyev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:38 | 3:31 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:20 | 3:34 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:33 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 21:17 | 5:37 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:07 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 15:55 | 2:07 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:57 | 0:03 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:11 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:01 | 0:06 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 2:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:33 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:00 | 3:34 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 28:00 | 2:10 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 22:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:07 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:23 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.3, MTL 3.1 | WSH 5, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.3, MTL 26.3 | WSH 26, MTL 18 |
| Win chance | WSH 53% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.4 | 1 | 1.04 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.2 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH A. Alexeyev | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.