Game Recap: WSH 4, NSH 1, January 11, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH4

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

NSH1

WSH beat NSH 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.93 expected goals to 3.52. NSH outshot WSH 33 to 16. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Marchessault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. L. Thompson stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	1	3	4
NSH	0	1	0	1

2nd 9:03WSHT. WilsonPP0.14 xG
2nd 16:14NSHF. ForsbergPP0.06 xG
3rd 8:30WSHE. Frank0.08 xG
3rd 14:54WSHA. Mangiapane0.12 xG
3rd 19:01WSHA. OvechkinEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

WSHNSH

16Shots on goal33

2.93Expected goals3.52

44Shot attempts76

145v5 shots on goal28

1/2Power play1/3

12Hits18

27Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways12

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.93 xGNSH 3.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH15 on goal, 4 scored

NSH33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+1	0	14:31	3:07
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	20:10	2:02
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	14:47	2:55
B. Duhaime	LW	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	13:08	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:39	0:52
E. Frank	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:21	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:58	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:52	0:12
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:45	1:04
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	15:39	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	11:34	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	10:34	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	0	21:58	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+2	2	21:42	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	21:23	2:03
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	19:40	1:05
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:30	2:15
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	15:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	6	1	0	-2	0	19:20	2:20
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	-2	0	19:01	2:19
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	20:03	2:18
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	17:42	1:34
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:07	0:22
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:55	0:17
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-1	0	14:54	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:50	1:25
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:14	0:41
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:54	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:10	0:40
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	10:00	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	2	26:35	2:15
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	21:25	0:27
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	18:40	0:17
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	18:30	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:41	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	15	12	3	.800	58:42	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.8, NSH 3.1	WSH 4, NSH 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	WSH 26.4, NSH 30.4	WSH 16, NSH 33
Win chance	NSH 55%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	5	1.00	1	36%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	3.1	6	0.88	1	36%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.0	1	0.84	1	22%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	2	0.74	2	32%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	3	0.60	1	26%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	0	0.81	0	32%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.2	2	0.52	0	17%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	0	0.44	0	13%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	0	0.57	1	13%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	2	0.58	0	18%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	0	0.69	0	25%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	0	0.44	0	20%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	0	0.77	1	23%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.61	0	21%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.5	0	0.68	0	21%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.5	3	0.48	0	18%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	3	0.27	0	9%	0
NSH V. Hinostroza	1.4	2	0.32	0	13%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.28	1	6%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.3	0	0.35	0	16%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	2	0.37	0	17%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	0	0.20	1	10%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.2	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	4	0.27	0	14%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.2	1	0.36	1	15%	1
NSH C. Sissons	1.2	3	0.32	0	13%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	2	0.13	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	3	0.33	0	16%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	0	0.23	0	9%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	1	0.22	0	3%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.0	1	0.19	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.34	0	8%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.22	1	7%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	0	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.