Game Recap: WSH 3, NYI 1, April 15, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WSH3

FinalTue, Apr 15, 2025Every game that night

NYI1

WSH beat NYI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.88 expected goals to 2.16. D. Strome scored three for WSH. D. Strome had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Lindgren stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	1	1	3
NYI	0	0	1	1

1st 8:15WSHD. StromePP0.04 xG
2nd 7:52WSHD. Strome0.21 xG
3rd 11:36NYIJ. Pageau0.16 xG
3rd 18:49WSHD. StromeEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

WSHNYI

36Shots on goal33

4.88Expected goals2.16

72Shot attempts66

245v5 shots on goal23

1/4Power play0/4

13Hits8

19Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways14

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 4.88 xGNYI 2.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH36 on goal, 3 scored

NYI33 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	3	0	3	6	0	0	+2	2	17:33	5:29
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	20:08	4:14
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	16:45	0:05
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	2	16:42	5:23
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:41	5:39
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	2	14:12	0:05
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	13:47	0:05
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	7	0	-1	0	13:43	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:51	0:16
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:40	1:25
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:13	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	10:14	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	23:03	4:33
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	25:52	1:11
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	21:16	0:00
A. Alexeyev	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:18	0:10
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:38	0:05
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
C. Stevenson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Pageau	C	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:00	2:34
B. Horvat	C	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	21:39	4:14
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	21:27	4:33
A. Lee	LW	0	0	4	0	2	-2	0	18:34	4:01
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:53	2:13
M. Martin	LW	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:33	0:29
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:24	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	11:57	0:22
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:55	2:09
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	11:21	0:22
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:06	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	10:46	0:22
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	23:36	5:36
N. Dobson	D	0	0	3	0	5	-1	0	23:24	4:24
R. Pulock	D	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:25	1:31
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	18:25	2:45
A. Pelech	D	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	18:24	0:05
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	17:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	35	33	2	.943	57:32	Loss
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, NYI 3.1	WSH 3, NYI 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	WSH 27.3, NYI 28.9	WSH 36, NYI 33
Win chance	WSH 51%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.3	2	0.91	1	37%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	2	0.73	0	31%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.4	4	0.59	0	26%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.3	3	0.56	0	12%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	2	0.57	0	13%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.2	1	0.64	0	27%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	2	0.68	1	28%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	5	0.54	0	21%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	3	0.70	1	23%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	6	0.83	3	25%	3
NYI P. Engvall	1.7	3	0.37	0	16%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.7	3	0.29	0	15%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.7	5	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.5	1	0.44	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	1	0.50	1	16%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	2	0.27	0	4%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.34	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.3	2	0.28	0	12%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	1	0.41	0	18%	0
NYI H. Fasching	1.3	4	0.27	0	12%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	1	0.52	0	21%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.29	0	7%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.2	2	0.27	0	12%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	1	0.29	0	17%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	0	0.26	0	10%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.37	1	6%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	1	0.25	0	3%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	2	0.32	1	15%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	2	0.17	0	5%	0
NYI S. Perunovich	0.8	0	0.34	0	4%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	3	0.14	0	6%	0
WSH A. Alexeyev	0.7	1	0.12	0	2%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.4	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.