Game Recap: WSH 3, NYR 2 (OT), March 5, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH3

Final/OTWed, Mar 5, 2025Every game that night

NYR2

WSH beat NYR 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.29 expected goals to 2.67. WSH outshot NYR 26 to 17. T. Wilson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Lindgren stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WSH	1	0	1	1	3
NYR	1	1	0	0	2

1st 1:04WSHP. Dubois0.17 xG
1st 13:37NYRA. Panarin0.06 xG
2nd 8:05NYRS. Carrick0.08 xG
3rd 10:28WSHA. OvechkinPP0.12 xG
OT 4:07WSHT. Wilson0.15 xG

Team Stats

WSHNYR

26Shots on goal17

3.29Expected goals2.67

61Shot attempts58

165v5 shots on goal13

1/4Power play0/4

22Hits36

19Blocked shots14

16Penalty minutes18

14Giveaways4

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.29 xGNYR 2.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH26 on goal, 3 scored

NYR17 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	1	2	3	4	1	+1	0	23:23	6:12
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:14	6:12
P. Dubois	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	19:58	5:56
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	18:34	6:27
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	9:22	1:03
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	4	7:33	1:06
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:34	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:20	1:04
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:48	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:27	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5	10:21	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	28:28	4:40
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	23:13	3:31
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	7	18:51	0:20
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	18:23	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:07	0:04
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	17	15	2	.882	64:07	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	22:23	5:56
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	18:03	2:18
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	5	11:25	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	25:44	5:29
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	2	24:03	5:34
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	21:38	5:23
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	17:10	2:24
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	11:07	2:11
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	10:11	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:05	1:48
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	8:33	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	7:46	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	26:12	2:13
Z. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	2	18:31	5:35
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	16:49	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	22:16	0:04
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	18:39	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	+1	0	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	26	23	3	.885	64:07	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.8, NYR 3.0	WSH 3, NYR 2
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	WSH 26.9, NYR 28.1	WSH 26, NYR 17
Win chance	NYR 53%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.5	5	0.84	1	35%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	3	1.05	1	31%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	4	0.73	0	25%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	1	0.83	0	27%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.3	2	0.52	0	14%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	3	0.62	2	26%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.0	0	0.94	0	28%	0
WSH P. Dubois	2.0	2	0.72	1	23%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	2	0.57	0	10%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	1	0.52	0	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	0	0.53	1	22%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	1	0.59	0	18%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.44	0	21%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	1	0.76	1	23%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.5	0	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	1	0.30	0	12%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	1	0.31	1	9%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.3	0	0.16	0	9%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	3	0.31	0	5%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.2	2	0.26	1	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.34	1	15%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.22	1	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	1	0.27	1	12%	1
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	1	0.27	0	10%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.0	0	0.29	1	13%	0
NYR C. Haan	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.32	0	15%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	1	0.24	0	6%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	0	0.22	0	3%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	0	0.20	0	2%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.8	0	0.28	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.