Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WSH5
SJS1
WSH beat SJS 5-1, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 1.96. WSH outshot SJS 28 to 20. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Thompson stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| SJS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 7:33WSHD. Strome0.41 xG
- 1st 17:26WSHA. Protas0.30 xG
- 1st 18:55WSHT. Raddysh0.16 xG
- 3rd 6:19SJSM. Celebrini0.24 xG
- 3rd 6:59WSHT. van Riemsdyk0.08 xG
- 3rd 10:54WSHA. Ovechkin0.08 xG
Team Stats
WSHSJS
28Shots on goal20
2.60Expected goals1.96
55Shot attempts32
265v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play0/3
13Hits22
4Blocked shots15
16Penalty minutes16
14Giveaways16
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.60 xGSJS 1.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 4:55 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 17:19 | 2:03 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:26 | 3:29 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:20 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:26 | 2:10 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 1:57 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:35 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:22 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:11 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 21:19 | 3:33 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:01 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 59:46 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:31 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 3:48 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:06 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 3:48 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:44 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 3:57 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:07 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 1:24 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:59 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 20:55 | 0:03 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:41 | 1:08 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Schuldt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 20:00 | Loss |
| G. Romanov | 11 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 40:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.5, SJS 2.7 | WSH 5, SJS 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 28.6, SJS 26.7 | WSH 28, SJS 20 |
| Win chance | WSH 63% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.4 | 4 | 0.99 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.3 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.8 | 5 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS P. Giles | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.