Game Recap: WSH 8, STL 1, November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH8

FinalSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

STL1

WSH beat STL 8-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 2.01. D. Strome led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Thompson stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	2	5	8
STL	1	0	0	1

1st 0:59WSHC. McMichael0.03 xG
1st 7:07STLS. Perunovich0.16 xG
2nd 7:42WSHA. Ovechkin0.06 xG
2nd 10:53WSHJ. Chychrun0.08 xG
3rd 2:09WSHA. OvechkinPP0.11 xG
3rd 3:51WSHR. Sandin0.22 xG
3rd 10:20WSHC. McMichaelPP0.28 xG
3rd 15:27WSHM. Sgarbossa0.12 xG
3rd 16:45WSHB. Duhaime0.16 xG

Team Stats

WSHSTL

27Shots on goal25

3.00Expected goals2.01

47Shot attempts56

195v5 shots on goal17

2/2Power play0/3

18Hits25

18Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways21

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.00 xGSTL 2.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH25 on goal, 8 scored

STL25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	0	3	3	2	1	1	+1	0	15:08	1:24
C. McMichael	LW	2	0	2	3	0	1	+2	0	17:13	1:24
T. Wilson	RW	0	2	2	2	3	0	+2	0	16:44	1:24
A. Ovechkin	LW	2	0	2	5	2	0	+1	0	14:41	1:24
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	13:07	0:00
M. Sgarbossa	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+1	2	11:25	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:37	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:25	0:00
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	14:14	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	1	0	1	3	4	1	+1	0	14:05	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	2	16:15	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:15	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+3	2	19:44	1:24
J. Chychrun	D	1	1	2	1	0	2	+3	2	18:44	0:00
R. Sandin	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	19:41	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	0	0	18:58	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	22:27	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	3	4	0	-1	0	16:56	3:18
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:53	2:34
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	17:13	3:22
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:21	2:35
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:50	2:40
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:44	3:28
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	14:37	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:53	2:36
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	13:51	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	7	0	-2	0	13:34	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	12:09	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	10:59	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:56	2:54
M. Kessel	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:17	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	22:49	3:23
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	4	0	4	-3	0	20:52	3:10
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	4	20:45	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-4	0	16:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	27	19	8	.704	60:00	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamConnor McMichael STL First game against WSH since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 G, 3 SOG
Old teamJordan Kyrou WSH First game back in St. Louis, his team until Apr 20261 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, STL 3.3	WSH 8, STL 1
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	WSH 27.9, STL 28.7	WSH 27, STL 25
Win chance	STL 57%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	5	0.80	2	34%	2
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	3	0.95	1	34%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.2	3	0.50	2	23%	2
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.55	2	25%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.2	2	0.73	0	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.1	4	0.57	0	12%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	1	0.59	2	13%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	1	0.88	0	29%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	2	0.81	3	25%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.9	3	0.40	0	12%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.53	1	21%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.8	1	0.52	0	26%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	1.8	1	0.34	2	10%	1
STL B. Saad	1.7	2	0.56	0	24%	0
WSH J. Vrana	1.7	0	0.39	0	19%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.6	0	0.42	1	12%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.6	2	0.40	0	19%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.5	1	0.41	2	18%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.5	0	0.31	0	16%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.4	3	0.22	1	11%	1
WSH T. Raddysh	1.4	1	0.26	1	13%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.25	0	5%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.2	1	0.37	0	13%	0
STL R. Suter	1.2	0	0.31	0	6%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.2	2	0.24	0	3%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.37	0	18%	0
STL K. Kapanen	1.1	1	0.31	0	11%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.33	0	14%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	2	0.36	1	7%	1
STL P. Joseph	1.0	2	0.23	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.23	1	7%	0
WSH M. Sgarbossa	0.9	1	0.24	2	11%	1
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.31	0	11%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.6	1	0.30	1	2%	1
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.14	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.