Game Recap: WSH 0, TBL 3, October 26, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH0

FinalSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

TBL3

TBL beat WSH 3-0, with the chances close: 1.72 expected goals to 2.15. WSH outshot TBL 32 to 21. T. van Riemsdyk had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	0	0	0
TBL	0	1	2	3

2nd 5:27TBLM. Chaffee0.07 xG
3rd 2:26TBLB. Point0.18 xG
3rd 3:10TBLC. Geekie0.15 xG

Team Stats

WSHTBL

32Shots on goal21

2.15Expected goals1.72

65Shot attempts52

295v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/3

30Hits12

16Blocked shots19

13Penalty minutes11

15Giveaways14

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.15 xGTBL 1.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH31 on goal, 0 scored

TBL20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	2	3	0	0	0	18:19	2:19
D. Strome	C	3	0	1	-1	2	18:01	1:59
A. Protas	LW	4	1	0	0	0	16:46	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	2	5	0	-1	0	16:27	1:59
P. Dubois	C	4	1	2	-1	0	15:57	1:52
N. Dowd	C	1	3	0	0	0	15:19	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	0	-1	0	15:04	0:20
T. Raddysh	RW	1	2	0	-1	0	14:27	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	-1	0	12:53	0:20
B. Duhaime	LW	3	1	1	-1	5	12:42	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	1	0	0	-1	4	10:32	0:20
J. Vrana	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	10:00	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	2	2	-3	2	24:57	1:58
T. van Riemsdyk	D	4	1	3	0	0	22:34	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	1	2	-1	0	21:31	0:28
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	3	-1	0	19:38	0:00
R. Sandin	D	3	3	1	-1	0	19:27	0:00
D. McIlrath	D	0	3	0	0	0	9:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:51	2:44
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	18:21	2:23
B. Point	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:08	1:35
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:41	1:26
N. Paul	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:22	2:03
M. Chaffee	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	14:23	0:00
C. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	13:26	1:39
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	13:06	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	4	0	4	+1	0	18:21	1:58
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:59	1:59
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:01	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:46	1:46
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:05	2:13
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	20:47	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+2	2	20:20	0:04
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:50	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	7	14:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	32	32	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJohn Carlson TBL Faces WSH, his team until Feb 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, TBL 3.5	WSH 0, TBL 3
Total goals	6.4	3
Shots on goal	WSH 25.6, TBL 29.4	WSH 32, TBL 21
Win chance	TBL 60%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.2	0	1.66	1	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	4	1.06	0	35%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	2	0.83	0	34%	0
TBL B. Point	2.6	1	1.13	1	40%	1
TBL V. Hedman	2.3	2	0.83	0	15%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.3	1	0.72	0	16%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	2	0.62	0	27%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.1	1	0.93	1	30%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.1	1	0.46	0	13%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	3	0.85	0	26%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	4	0.62	0	23%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.8	0	0.29	1	11%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	0	0.47	0	20%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	1	0.52	1	21%	0
WSH J. Vrana	1.5	2	0.39	0	19%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.5	0	0.61	1	19%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.5	0	0.47	0	19%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.5	4	0.38	0	10%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	3	0.29	0	12%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.3	1	0.27	0	13%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.3	3	0.22	0	11%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.2	1	0.34	0	5%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	4	0.25	0	4%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.40	0	18%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.1	1	0.36	0	9%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.0	2	0.29	1	12%	1
WSH H. Lapierre	1.0	1	0.36	0	13%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.25	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	3	0.34	0	6%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
TBL N. Perbix	0.9	2	0.28	0	4%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.9	1	0.28	1	12%	1
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	1	0.13	0	9%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.4	0	0.20	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.