Game Recap: WSH 2, WPG 3 (OT), March 25, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH2

Final/OTTue, Mar 25, 2025Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat WSH 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.05 expected goals to 2.05. C. Miller had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WSH	1	0	1	0	2
WPG	1	1	0	1	3

1st 6:50WPGJ. Morrissey0.04 xG
1st 19:20WSHA. Mangiapane0.08 xG
2nd 19:48WPGM. Appleton0.06 xG
3rd 16:00WSHA. Ovechkin0.16 xG
OT 1:28WPGN. Ehlers0.14 xG

Team Stats

WSHWPG

29Shots on goal25

2.05Expected goals2.05

67Shot attempts52

235v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/2

17Hits15

12Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways11

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.05 xGWPG 2.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH27 on goal, 2 scored

WPG25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:50	0:09
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	17:42	4:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	9:59	1:58
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	20:32	1:53
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:30	2:21
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:55	1:16
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	16:01	2:33
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:50	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:14	0:09
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:12	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:53	1:32
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:21	0:09
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	21:22	2:41
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	16:39	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	22:15	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	20:39	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:41	1:19
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	16:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	25	22	3	.880	61:28	OT loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:20	2:43
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	4	0	3	+1	0	17:55	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	17:53	2:22
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:47	1:38
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	14:21	2:10
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	14:21	1:27
K. Connor	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	22:10	2:33
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:28	1:50
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:00	1:17
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:42	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:15	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:44	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	25:03	2:39
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	0	0	23:34	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	23:22	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	6	3	-1	2	18:09	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	2	15:14	1:21
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	29	27	2	.931	61:10	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPierre-Luc Dubois WSH Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20231 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.8, WPG 3.2	WSH 2, WPG 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	WSH 25.1, WPG 27.8	WSH 29, WPG 25
Win chance	WPG 57%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	2	1.02	0	37%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.9	4	0.72	1	32%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.6	3	0.81	1	27%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	3	0.74	1	16%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.1	4	0.41	1	12%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	0	0.94	1	33%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.8	1	0.56	0	24%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.8	2	0.49	0	9%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	2	0.46	0	19%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	1	0.59	0	20%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.6	1	0.28	0	13%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.6	1	0.55	1	18%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.6	0	0.40	1	19%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	1	0.53	1	18%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.5	0	0.67	0	22%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	2	0.30	1	7%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.3	2	0.31	1	12%	1
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	4	0.39	1	16%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.45	0	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	4	0.28	0	4%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	4	0.21	0	6%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.29	0	13%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.25	0	10%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.1	1	0.14	0	4%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.0	2	0.31	1	14%	1
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.31	0	5%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	0	0.17	0	9%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.28	1	5%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	0	0.29	0	15%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	1	0.20	1	3%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	1	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.