Game Recap: ANA 7, BOS 5, October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA7

FinalThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

BOS5

ANA beat BOS 7-5, with the chances close: 4.28 expected goals to 3.64. BOS outshot ANA 42 to 30. M. Granlund led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). M. Granlund had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. P. Mrazek stopped 37 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	2	4	7
BOS	1	2	2	5

1st 2:10BOSC. Mittelstadt0.43 xG
1st 8:06ANAD. Helleson0.03 xG
2nd 8:49BOSM. Geekie0.08 xG
2nd 11:29ANAC. Gauthier0.08 xG
2nd 15:24ANAJ. Trouba0.37 xG
2nd 17:10BOSM. LohreiPP0.03 xG
3rd 2:52ANAM. GranlundPP0.15 xG
3rd 7:49ANAS. Colangelo0.24 xG
3rd 14:32BOSD. PastrnakPP0.03 xG
3rd 14:57BOSM. Geekie0.13 xG
3rd 15:27ANAT. Terry0.21 xG
3rd 17:52ANAM. GranlundEN0.79 xG

Team Stats

ANABOS

30Shots on goal42

4.28Expected goals3.64

63Shot attempts82

235v5 shots on goal39

1/3Power play2/2

17Hits18

22Blocked shots15

9Penalty minutes11

19Giveaways18

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 4.28 xGBOS 3.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA30 on goal, 7 scored

BOS42 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	2	3	5	5	0	1	+4	0	20:46	3:48
N. Nesterenko	C	0	4	4	2	1	1	+4	0	15:17	0:00
T. Terry	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+4	0	19:46	3:46
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	18:44	3:45
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	17:14	1:30
S. Colangelo	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	3	4	0	-2	0	12:39	3:45
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	11:07	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	17:31	1:29
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	14:10	1:09
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	12:56	1:28
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	11:20	0:00
J. Trouba	D	1	1	2	2	3	5	+3	0	28:34	0:20
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	24:05	3:52
D. Helleson	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	21:18	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+3	0	21:26	1:23
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	2	15:54	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	3:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	42	37	5	.881	59:48	Win
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Geekie	C	2	0	2	4	3	0	-2	0	18:29	0:08
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	-1	0	17:44	0:08
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	17:46	0:08
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	14:11	0:08
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	12:36	0:14
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	4	1	2	-1	0	12:05	0:14
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	11:50	0:14
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	15:22	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	14:36	0:00
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	0	14:11	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	13:38	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	12:50	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	-2	2	22:40	0:08
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	21:16	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	19:02	0:14
H. Jokiharju	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:24	0:14
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	21:30	0:00
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	16:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	29	23	6	.793	59:41	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund16:13T. Terry15:15N. Nesterenko14:58

Line 2A. Killorn15:42L. Carlsson14:51C. Gauthier15:32

Line 3M. McTavish11:28B. Sennecke13:01F. Vatrano8:54

Line 4R. Johnston11:20R. Poehling11:07S. Colangelo13:14

Pair 1J. Trouba27:43O. Zellweger20:03

Pair 2J. LaCombe19:20D. Helleson20:56

Pair 3R. Gudas3:49P. Mintyukov15:54

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm16:15M. Geekie17:53D. Pastrnak17:17

Line 2T. Jeannot13:04F. Minten13:54J. Viel13:24

Line 3P. Zacha12:29C. Mittelstadt12:00V. Arvidsson11:24

Line 4S. Kuraly11:28M. Kastelic10:25M. Eyssimont11:51

Pair 1C. McAvoy19:44M. Lohrei18:48

Pair 2N. Zadorov17:23A. Peeke19:15

Pair 3H. Jokiharju16:37M. Callahan16:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.9, BOS 3.2	ANA 7, BOS 5
Total goals	6.1	12
Shots on goal	ANA 28.0, BOS 29.4	ANA 30, BOS 42
Win chance	BOS 57%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	5	1.42	2	46%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	3	0.69	1	25%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.5	0	0.72	0	25%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	2.3	1	0.73	2	14%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.2	3	0.56	1	21%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	3	0.70	2	24%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	2.2	3	0.45	1	21%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.2	2	0.72	1	26%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	4	0.89	2	32%	2
ANA B. Sennecke	2.0	0	0.58	0	21%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.0	4	0.69	1	23%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.9	4	0.30	1	13%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.9	0	0.31	0	8%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	2	0.51	0	21%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.7	5	0.66	5	17%	2
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	2	0.53	1	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	3	0.76	1	22%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	0	0.36	1	11%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.5	3	0.32	0	14%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.4	2	0.31	0	14%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.4	2	0.25	4	14%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	2	0.56	1	18%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	2	0.38	1	7%	1
ANA D. Helleson	1.2	2	0.27	1	7%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.2	2	0.23	2	4%	1
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.2	0	0.28	1	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	3	0.22	0	4%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.2	1	0.33	1	18%	1
BOS F. Minten	1.1	3	0.21	0	13%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
BOS J. Viel	0.9	3	0.15	0	9%	0
ANA R. Poehling	0.9	0	0.31	1	12%	0
BOS M. Callahan	0.8	2	0.14	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.8	1	0.24	0	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.