BUF beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.56 expected goals to 2.87. BUF outshot ANA 37 to 18. D. Cozens led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Thompson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
- 1st 3:05ANAM. McTavishPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 4:58ANAL. CarlssonPP0.31 xG
- 3rd 1:56BUFJ. Peterka0.14 xG
- 3rd 5:34BUFA. Tuch0.03 xG
- 3rd 9:31BUFH. Jokiharju0.02 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.87 xGBUF 4.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 4:26 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:36 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:50 | 2:03 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:38 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:45 | 4:07 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19:18 | 3:23 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:03 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:07 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:38 | 1:42 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:20 | 1:06 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:33 | 4:27 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:40 | 1:44 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 16:35 | 0:12 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:42 | 2:18 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 19:16 | 2:32 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:18 | 3:08 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:04 | 3:09 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:06 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 3:01 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 3:10 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 1:38 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 2:22 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:40 | 2:02 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:50 | 0:48 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:41 | 3:31 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.7, BUF 3.3 | ANA 2, BUF 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.0, BUF 31.9 | ANA 18, BUF 37 |
| Win chance | BUF 60% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 7 | 1.00 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.8 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.7 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 5 | 0.85 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.4 | 4 | 0.63 | 3 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.6 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.5 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.