Game Recap: ANA 3, BUF 5, January 10, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA3

FinalSat, Jan 10, 2026Every game that night

BUF5

BUF beat ANA 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 2.31. J. Quinn led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Benson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. U. Luukkonen stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	0	3	3
BUF	1	1	3	5

1st 2:03BUFJ. Quinn0.12 xG
2nd 7:22BUFT. Thompson0.14 xG
3rd 7:09BUFB. Byram0.21 xG
3rd 15:16ANAO. Zellweger0.12 xG
3rd 16:00BUFJ. Quinn0.05 xG
3rd 18:02ANAL. Carlsson0.02 xG
3rd 19:12ANAM. McTavish0.14 xG
3rd 19:49BUFJ. NorrisEN0.72 xG

Team Stats

ANABUF

36Shots on goal32

2.31Expected goals3.93

76Shot attempts51

295v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/2

29Hits10

7Blocked shots22

13Penalty minutes13

19Giveaways19

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.31 xGBUF 3.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA36 on goal, 3 scored

BUF31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	0	20:03	2:21
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:34	2:28
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:25	2:30
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-2	2	16:57	2:19
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	18:54	1:41
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:29	1:32
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	15:03	1:39
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:55	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	7	12:31	1:30
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:47	0:00
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:18	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+2	0	21:05	1:40
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	0	2	19:51	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	14:24	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	20:58	2:20
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	19:29	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	18:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	31	27	4	.871	58:46	Loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	19:49	2:15
P. Krebs	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	15:48	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	13:51	0:54
J. Quinn	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	13:41	0:38
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	19:10	0:51
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	17:18	0:50
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	4	0	3	0	2	15:12	2:02
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	7	15:09	2:03
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:39	1:59
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	11:04	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:32	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:00	0:00
B. Byram	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+2	0	25:56	0:38
O. Power	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	22:03	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	-1	2	25:37	2:15
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	23:59	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:07	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	10:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	36	33	3	.917	60:00	Win
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson16:28B. Sennecke15:41A. Killorn16:20

Line 2M. Granlund14:02M. McTavish13:32C. Gauthier13:24

Line 3C. Kreider12:51R. Poehling12:32R. Strome11:01

Line 4N. Nesterenko10:33T. Washe9:54R. Johnston9:33

Pair 1P. Mintyukov17:06D. Helleson18:08

Pair 2R. Gudas17:26O. Zellweger18:23

Pair 3J. LaCombe18:10I. Moore14:21

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson17:17P. Krebs15:37J. Doan13:06

Line 2J. Zucker14:40A. Tuch15:43J. Norris12:41

Line 3R. McLeod13:23J. Quinn12:29Z. Benson11:57

Line 4J. Greenway9:27B. Malenstyn8:49N. Ostlund9:50

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:44R. Dahlin22:22

Pair 2B. Byram20:52O. Power20:04

Pair 3J. Bryson9:19Z. Metsa10:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOlen Zellweger BUF Faces ANA, his team until May 20261 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.2, BUF 3.6	ANA 3, BUF 5
Total goals	6.8	8
Shots on goal	ANA 29.0, BUF 29.7	ANA 36, BUF 32
Win chance	BUF 56%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	3	1.09	2	43%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	4	0.71	0	27%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.9	3	0.98	0	19%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.6	0	0.77	1	27%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	2	0.93	1	32%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	1	0.76	0	27%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	2	0.64	1	23%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.2	2	0.76	1	25%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.0	5	0.73	2	25%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	0	0.59	0	32%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.0	4	0.75	1	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.8	4	0.58	1	10%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	5	0.55	2	17%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	4	0.60	2	20%	2
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	1	0.52	1	11%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	4	0.72	1	30%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.5	4	0.40	0	18%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.5	2	0.68	1	16%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	1	0.46	0	9%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	4	0.29	1	8%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	0	0.68	1	22%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	2	0.39	0	9%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.39	2	12%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	0	0.35	0	11%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	3	0.41	0	14%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	0	0.38	0	17%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.1	0	0.24	1	6%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	3	0.22	0	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.0	1	0.26	0	10%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.7	1	0.20	0	5%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	1	0.15	0	5%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.17	0	5%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.