Game Recap: ANA 2, CAR 5, January 8, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA2

FinalThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night

CAR5

CAR beat ANA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 2.81. CAR outshot ANA 35 to 13. T. Hall led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Andersen stopped 11 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	1	0	2
CAR	0	3	2	5

1st 13:18ANAR. Poehling0.15 xG
2nd 8:56CARM. Jankowski0.18 xG
2nd 12:04ANAM. Granlund0.36 xG
2nd 14:05CARL. Stankoven0.28 xG
2nd 16:08CARJ. Chatfield0.07 xG
3rd 10:39CARJ. Blake0.06 xG
3rd 17:11CART. HallEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

ANACAR

13Shots on goal35

2.81Expected goals3.84

37Shot attempts72

115v5 shots on goal30

0/3Power play0/2

25Hits16

20Blocked shots8

14Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways21

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.81 xGCAR 3.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA13 on goal, 2 scored

CAR34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:17	3:14
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:36	3:38
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:58	2:04
R. Poehling	C	1	0	1	1	0	4	-1	0	13:56	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	13:40	3:05
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	10	19:31	2:25
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:13	3:12
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:41	2:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:33	3:41
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:24	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	9:47	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	8:35	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	-1	0	20:36	2:23
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-2	0	21:28	0:06
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:58	2:27
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	4	19:12	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-3	0	18:34	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Husso	34	30	4	.882	59:49	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Stankoven	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	0	15:27	1:57
T. Hall	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+3	0	12:58	1:58
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	0	17:31	1:26
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+3	0	15:15	1:55
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:10	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:54	0:00
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:59	2:03
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:36	2:03
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	16:02	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:08	2:05
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	15:01	2:33
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	12:06	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	20:59	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	24:21	0:25
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	4	20:59	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+3	0	20:23	2:01
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	16:04	1:34
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	13	11	2	.846	59:30	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1R. Strome14:30L. Carlsson15:50A. Killorn14:48

Line 2M. Granlund14:29B. Sennecke14:28M. McTavish13:24

Line 3R. Poehling11:44C. Gauthier11:52C. Kreider10:35

Line 4J. Harkins8:35T. Washe8:36R. Johnston9:47

Pair 1R. Gudas18:42J. LaCombe17:32

Pair 2O. Zellweger17:02J. Trouba18:46

Pair 3P. Mintyukov15:52D. Helleson11:48

CAR

Line 1J. Staal13:19S. Jarvis13:42J. Martinook13:48

Line 2L. Stankoven13:09J. Blake13:00T. Hall10:49

Line 3S. Aho12:02A. Svechnikov12:33N. Ehlers12:28

Line 4W. Carrier11:38E. Robinson11:13M. Jankowski10:57

Pair 1S. Walker19:40K. Miller19:58

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere17:52J. Chatfield17:01

Pair 3A. Nikishin13:10J. Nystrom12:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, CAR 3.5	ANA 2, CAR 5
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	ANA 25.6, CAR 32.2	ANA 13, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	3.1	3	1.03	0	36%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.9	0	0.67	0	25%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.8	2	0.92	0	30%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	4	0.96	0	30%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	1	1.08	0	36%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.5	2	0.36	1	10%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	3	0.62	1	25%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	2	0.52	2	20%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.1	2	0.62	1	22%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.0	0	0.71	1	23%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	2.0	2	0.88	1	14%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.9	3	0.61	2	23%	1
ANA C. Kreider	1.9	0	0.58	1	30%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	2	0.70	0	23%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	2	0.71	1	19%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.6	2	0.51	1	10%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.6	3	0.32	2	9%	1
CAR J. Staal	1.5	0	0.50	1	19%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	3	0.41	1	9%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.5	1	0.38	1	16%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	0	0.47	0	17%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.4	1	0.43	1	9%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	0	0.27	0	6%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	1	0.29	0	15%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.3	1	0.34	0	15%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.2	0	0.23	0	6%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.2	0	0.29	0	3%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.39	1	13%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	0	0.32	0	8%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	3	0.29	1	14%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.0	2	0.30	0	9%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.6	0	0.17	0	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.6	0	0.11	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	1	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.