CGY beat ANA 4-1, with the chances close: 2.39 expected goals to 2.38. M. Coronato led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Lomberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. D. Wolf stopped 30 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.38 xGCGY 2.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 2:39 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:30 | 3:20 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:25 | 2:44 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 3:21 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:22 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:40 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 15:16 | 3:17 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 3:16 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:02 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:02 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:10 | 0:02 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:05 | 2:43 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 3:19 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:05 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 5 | 17:48 | 0:16 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Coronato | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:36 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:24 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 | 0:24 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:02 | 1:36 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19:27 | 1:36 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:36 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:24 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Bishop | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:08 | 1:36 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:14 | 0:24 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:24 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.6, CGY 3.1 | ANA 1, CGY 4 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.1, CGY 33.0 | ANA 31, CGY 30 |
| Win chance | CGY 59% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.6 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.7 | 5 | 0.71 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.6 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 3 | 21% | 2 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.0 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.9 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 4 | 0.16 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CGY C. Bishop | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 4 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.