Game Recap: ANA 4, CGY 3 (OT), January 25, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA4

Final/OTSun, Jan 25, 2026Every game that night

CGY3

ANA beat CGY 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.32 expected goals to 3.27. CGY outshot ANA 35 to 21. B. Sennecke scored three for ANA. J. Huberdeau had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. L. Dostal stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	0	2	1	1	4
CGY	2	0	1	0	3

1st 6:17CGYJ. Huberdeau0.27 xG
1st 7:56CGYH. Brzustewicz0.03 xG
2nd 3:22ANAB. Sennecke0.16 xG
2nd 12:41ANAB. Sennecke0.10 xG
3rd 4:50CGYM. CoronatoPP0.19 xG
3rd 13:08ANAC. Kreider0.14 xG
OT 2:54ANAB. Sennecke0.16 xG

Team Stats

ANACGY

21Shots on goal35

2.32Expected goals3.27

59Shot attempts65

175v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play1/1

25Hits28

16Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways20

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.32 xGCGY 3.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA21 on goal, 4 scored

CGY32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Sennecke	RW	3	0	3	3	1	1	+2	0	19:32	2:01
A. Killorn	LW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:21	1:39
M. Granlund	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	18:18	2:13
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:49	2:10
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	16:31	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	16:10	2:04
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:19	1:29
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	15:05	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:35	1:48
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	12:01	0:16
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	11:21	0:11
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	24:38	1:34
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	24:54	1:47
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	22:13	0:11
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:34	2:26
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	17:37	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:01	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:30	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	35	32	3	.914	62:54	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	17:02	1:13
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:20	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:18	1:13
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	-1	0	15:18	1:13
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:16	0:00
M. Gridin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	13:39	1:13
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	0	7	2	+1	0	12:08	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:25	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:27	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	2	8	0	-1	0	13:29	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	12:28	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	12:02	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	25:41	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	4	1	5	-2	0	24:27	1:13
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	23:56	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-1	2	19:07	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	21	17	4	.810	62:54	OT loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn15:22B. Sennecke16:16M. Granlund14:44

Line 2R. Poehling15:02C. Gauthier15:41J. Viel15:05

Line 3R. Strome12:47J. Harkins13:50C. Kreider12:55

Line 4R. Johnston11:10T. Washe11:05

Pair 1J. LaCombe21:50J. Trouba21:30

Pair 2R. Gudas21:37O. Zellweger16:21

Pair 3P. Mintyukov17:20D. Helleson11:01

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri16:04C. Zary15:29M. Pospisil13:29

Line 2M. Backlund15:57Y. Sharangovich16:01M. Coronato15:03

Line 3M. Gridin12:26M. Frost11:50J. Huberdeau13:12

Line 4A. Klapka12:08J. Kirkland10:57J. Farabee11:38

Pair 1K. Bahl22:05Z. Whitecloud20:58

Pair 2M. Weegar20:28Y. Kuznetsov18:14

Pair 3J. Hanley14:42H. Brzustewicz13:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan Strome CGY Faces ANA, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.1, CGY 3.2	ANA 4, CGY 3
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	ANA 29.3, CGY 29.7	ANA 21, CGY 35
Win chance	CGY 51%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	2	0.69	1	26%	0
CGY N. Kadri	2.9	1	0.85	1	30%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	3	0.63	1	22%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.3	3	0.73	3	23%	3
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	4	0.56	0	12%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	4	0.59	2	24%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.1	1	0.62	0	27%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	1	0.73	2	20%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	2	0.46	1	20%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	3	0.44	2	20%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.8	4	0.55	1	29%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.8	2	0.32	0	7%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	2	0.54	0	20%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	1	0.52	1	10%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.6	5	0.69	1	22%	1
CGY M. Gridin	1.5	1	0.38	1	16%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.5	1	0.46	0	16%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	0	0.26	0	7%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	2	0.34	0	10%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	0	0.43	1	15%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.3	0	0.19	0	11%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	0	0.33	1	16%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	0	0.36	0	9%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	1	0.35	0	11%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.2	1	0.33	0	6%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.2	1	0.17	1	5%	1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	4	0.29	0	9%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.1	2	0.28	0	8%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	2	0.19	0	3%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.15	0	8%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.8	0	0.20	0	5%	0
ANA T. Washe	0.8	2	0.21	0	12%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	1	0.26	0	10%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.