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Game Recap
ANA4
FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night
CGY2

ANA beat CGY 4-2, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 3.34. R. Poehling led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Bahl had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. V. Husso stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA2024
CGY1102
  1. 1st 10:02ANAJ. LaCombePP0.19 xG
  2. 1st 15:03CGYM. Frost0.22 xG
  3. 1st 19:15ANAF. Vatrano0.23 xG
  4. 2nd 17:54CGYA. Suniev0.03 xG
  5. 3rd 5:35ANAR. PoehlingSH0.15 xG
  6. 3rd 17:03ANAN. Nesterenko0.34 xG

Team Stats

ANACGY
28Shots on goal29
3.26Expected goals3.34
54Shot attempts69
265v5 shots on goal25
1/2Power play0/3
27Hits24
23Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways15
1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.26 xGCGY 3.34 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 10:02CGY goal, 15:03ANA goal, 19:15CGY goal, 17:54ANA goal, 5:35ANA goal, 17:03

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA27 on goal, 4 scored
CGY28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GranlundC022401-1019:231:36
R. PoehlingC112221+2011:490:00
L. CarlssonC011211-1020:181:35
A. KillornLW011400+2018:370:35
N. NesterenkoC101340+1014:040:00
F. VatranoRW101112+1011:480:35
B. SenneckeRW000210-2220:371:35
T. WasheC0002920216:400:00
S. ColangeloRW0001200014:190:35
J. CaulfieldRW0000200013:511:35
J. MalottLW0000210011:370:00
C. GauthierLW000000002:180:00
N. WarrenD011214+1021:140:00
P. MintyukovD011200+1019:490:34
J. LaCombeD1011020217:011:34
T. LuneauD000011+1023:420:36
T. HindsD0001040019:210:00
T. MitchellD000114-1017:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso29272.93160:00Win
L. Dostal000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CoronatoRW0221000019:472:44
M. FrostC101100+1016:583:12
A. SunievLW101211+1015:492:55
Y. SharangovichC0002000022:112:48
J. FarabeeLW000501-1021:103:11
M. BacklundC0001020019:240:00
M. GridinRW000301-2014:543:04
R. StromeC000300-1013:393:16
A. KlapkaRW0000400011:350:00
M. TsyplakovRW0001400011:282:49
M. PospisilC000232-2011:020:00
J. CastagnaC000110029:510:00
S. NemecD011102+2023:372:57
K. BahlD000422+2021:260:01
Z. WhitecloudD000051-1019:010:00
Y. KuznetsovD0001110018:190:00
Z. ParekhD000110-3217:483:03
J. MiddletonD000022-1012:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf28244.85757:11Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson17:23B. Sennecke19:00S. Colangelo13:40
Line 2J. Caulfield11:39T. Washe13:35J. Malott10:28
Line 3M. Granlund13:13N. Nesterenko11:42A. Killorn12:59
Line 4F. Vatrano10:29R. Poehling10:25
Pair 1T. Luneau21:19T. Hinds18:12
Pair 2J. LaCombe11:59N. Warren16:07
Pair 3T. Mitchell15:51P. Mintyukov14:46

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund16:55Y. Sharangovich16:47J. Farabee15:28
Line 2M. Coronato15:08M. Frost12:03A. Suniev11:16
Line 3M. Pospisil10:18M. Gridin10:45R. Strome9:31
Line 4A. Klapka10:32J. Castagna9:51M. Tsyplakov8:39
Pair 1K. Bahl18:52S. Nemec18:52
Pair 2Z. Whitecloud17:27Y. Kuznetsov17:34
Pair 3J. Middleton12:04Z. Parekh13:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 21 overs hit (48%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-115+1100Under
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-125+1052Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+110-1152Under
CGY M. Backlund2.5+135-1701Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5-110-1181Under
CGY M. Gridin2.5+130-1503Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5-120-1054Over
CGY A. Suniev1.5+125-1602Over
ANA J. Caulfield1.5+115-1650Under
CGY J. Farabee1.5-160+1255Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5-115+1151Under
CGY M. Frost1.5-155+1351Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-138+1204Over
ANA N. Nesterenko1.5+115-1653Over
ANA P. Mintyukov1.5+120-1752Over
ANA R. Poehling1.5-105-1302Over
CGY R. Strome1.5+110–3Over
CGY S. Nemec1.5-115-1151Under
ANA T. Luneau1.5+115-1650Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-135+1102Over
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-115+1001Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamRyan Strome CGY Faces ANA, his team until Mar 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.2, CGY 3.0ANA 4, CGY 2
Total goals6.26
Shots on goalANA 30.7, CGY 27.3ANA 28, CGY 29
Win chanceANA 53%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.800.89034%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.920.80027%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.620.84127%0
CGY M. Coronato2.510.72226%0
CGY M. Backlund2.110.50019%0
ANA M. Granlund2.040.79223%0
CGY M. Frost1.910.65123%1
ANA J. LaCombe1.910.75111%1
CGY J. Farabee1.850.58023%0
CGY M. Gridin1.830.65018%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.810.47014%0
CGY A. Suniev1.820.39116%1
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.720.47022%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.630.36115%1
CGY S. Nemec1.610.41113%0
ANA A. Killorn1.640.39118%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.520.33010%0
CGY R. Strome1.330.50015%0
ANA R. Poehling1.320.40214%1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.210.2307%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.120.2616%0
CGY A. Klapka1.100.29013%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov1.010.26010%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.010.27016%0
ANA T. Washe1.020.24011%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.900.2706%0
CGY J. Middleton0.900.2506%0
ANA T. Luneau0.900.2205%0
ANA J. Malott0.900.1606%0
ANA T. Hinds0.810.0902%0
CGY K. Bahl0.840.2605%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.610.1305%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.