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Game Recap
ANA5
FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026Every game that night
CGY3

ANA beat CGY 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.05 expected goals to 2.41. ANA outshot CGY 29 to 21. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Malott had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. V. Husso stopped 10 of 10.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA1135
CGY3003
  1. 1st 2:23CGYW. Stromgren0.25 xG
  2. 1st 2:50ANAJ. Malott0.35 xG
  3. 1st 16:29CGYJ. Hanley0.20 xG
  4. 1st 19:02CGYJ. FarabeePP0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 12:02ANAT. Luneau0.10 xG
  6. 3rd 0:55ANAL. CarlssonPP0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 18:26ANAC. Gauthier0.04 xG
  8. 3rd 19:46ANAN. NesterenkoEN0.54 xG

Team Stats

ANACGY
29Shots on goal21
4.05Expected goals2.41
65Shot attempts47
245v5 shots on goal16
1/3Power play1/3
21Hits16
12Blocked shots22
6Penalty minutes6
19Giveaways18
4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 4.05 xGCGY 2.41 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdCGY goal, 2:23ANA goal, 2:50CGY goal, 16:29CGY goal, 19:02ANA goal, 12:02ANA goal, 0:55ANA goal, 18:26ANA goal, 19:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA29 on goal, 5 scored
CGY21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SenneckeRW022300+2223:163:34
M. GranlundC022112+2023:073:36
L. CarlssonC112100+1021:453:55
C. GauthierLW101410+2022:203:44
J. MalottLW101402+1011:320:02
N. NesterenkoC101150+209:530:41
A. KillornLW0001000017:280:52
J. CaulfieldRW0003300015:130:59
T. WasheC0002300011:580:02
R. McQueenC0001210011:201:02
N. MyatovicLW000111-209:360:02
S. ColangeloRW000000-202:500:00
J. LaCombeD011213+3030:043:30
T. LuneauD101300+1017:081:09
P. MintyukovD000001+1025:060:02
D. HellesonD000120+2420:370:00
N. WarrenD000122-1018:060:00
T. MitchellD000000-204:350:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal1183.72720:00
V. Husso101001.00039:40Win

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. FrostC0221000013:203:39
J. FarabeeLW101410-1022:563:18
W. StromgrenLW101100+1010:080:00
M. CoronatoRW000300-1221:343:16
M. BacklundC0002110019:450:00
M. GridinRW000100-2017:453:20
R. StromeC000200-1014:431:10
J. CastagnaC000121+1013:270:00
M. PospisilC000040-1012:590:16
A. KlapkaRW000120-1012:260:52
Y. SharangovichC000000-1011:190:27
A. SunievLW000011-1010:011:06
Z. ParekhD0221060022:203:41
S. NemecD011213-2019:410:47
J. HanleyD101111-1016:560:18
Y. KuznetsovD0110030216:480:00
Z. WhitecloudD000034-1020:360:00
J. MiddletonD0001020219:460:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf28244.85758:52Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund16:26C. Gauthier18:16B. Sennecke19:06
Line 2A. Killorn14:03L. Carlsson15:32J. Caulfield13:28
Line 3J. Malott11:19R. McQueen10:11N. Nesterenko8:56
Line 4N. Myatovic9:34T. Washe8:31S. Colangelo2:50
Pair 1D. Helleson18:48J. LaCombe23:50
Pair 2P. Mintyukov21:50T. Luneau15:59

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee17:09M. Coronato17:10M. Backlund17:19
Line 2M. Gridin13:17R. Strome13:31M. Pospisil11:04
Line 3W. Stromgren10:08A. Klapka11:07J. Castagna12:34
Line 4M. Frost8:29A. Suniev8:44Y. Sharangovich7:39
Pair 1J. Middleton18:10Z. Whitecloud17:27
Pair 2J. Hanley15:09S. Nemec15:55
Pair 3Z. Parekh17:11Y. Kuznetsov15:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 24 overs hit (42%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-139+1104Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-115+1053Over
CGY J. Farabee2.5+130-1504Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+116-1351Under
CGY M. Backlund2.5+140-1552Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+115-1403Over
CGY M. Gridin2.5+135-1601Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5+100-1151Under
CGY A. Klapka1.5-111–1Under
CGY A. Suniev1.5-115-1050Under
ANA J. Caulfield1.5-140–3Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5+113-1302Over
CGY M. Frost1.5-115-1051Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-155+1301Under
CGY M. Pospisil1.5+135-1400Under
ANA N. Myatovic1.5+115–1Under
ANA R. McQueen1.5+120–1Under
CGY R. Strome1.5+110-1202Over
ANA S. Colangelo1.5-105–0Under
CGY S. Nemec1.5+100-1252Over
ANA T. Luneau1.5+125-1603Over
ANA T. Washe1.5+105–2Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-135+1150Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-115-1101Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamRyan Strome CGY Faces ANA, his team until Mar 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.2, CGY 3.2ANA 5, CGY 3
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalANA 29.1, CGY 27.9ANA 29, CGY 21
Win chanceCGY 51%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.840.87135%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.730.81231%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.610.89228%1
CGY M. Backlund2.420.59022%0
CGY M. Coronato2.330.75026%0
CGY M. Gridin2.110.71022%0
CGY J. Farabee2.140.73126%1
ANA M. Granlund2.010.78223%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.700.50023%0
CGY M. Frost1.710.62222%0
ANA A. Killorn1.710.43019%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.620.74111%0
CGY A. Suniev1.600.44021%0
CGY S. Nemec1.620.43112%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.510.44214%0
CGY R. Strome1.520.53017%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.500.40013%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.430.50021%0
CGY A. Klapka1.310.35013%0
ANA R. McQueen1.310.20011%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.200.28013%0
ANA T. Luneau1.130.3516%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.110.25111%1
ANA P. Mintyukov1.100.2706%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.100.2115%0
ANA T. Washe1.120.25012%0
ANA J. Malott1.040.21110%1
ANA D. Helleson1.010.2705%0
CGY J. Middleton1.010.2706%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud1.000.2705%0
CGY W. Stromgren1.010.21111%1
CGY J. Castagna0.910.31011%0
CGY J. Hanley0.810.2014%1
ANA N. Warren0.710.2002%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.500.1102%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.