Game Recap: ANA 1, CHI 2 (OT), October 19, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA1

Final/OTSun, Oct 19, 2025Every game that night

CHI2

CHI beat ANA 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.43 expected goals to 3.29. ANA outshot CHI 39 to 30. R. Donato led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Bedard had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Knight stopped 38 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	0	0	1	0	1
CHI	0	0	1	1	2

3rd 9:43CHIF. Nazar0.03 xG
3rd 19:24ANAM. McTavishPP0.09 xG
OT 2:58CHIR. Donato0.44 xG

Team Stats

ANACHI

39Shots on goal30

3.29Expected goals3.43

67Shot attempts59

295v5 shots on goal20

1/5Power play0/3

30Hits26

9Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes10

18Giveaways18

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.29 xGCHI 3.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA38 on goal, 1 scored

CHI29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	5	4	1	-1	0	21:50	3:05
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:16	4:56
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:22	4:35
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:43	4:34
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	19:33	2:34
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:57	2:11
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:19	2:07
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	4	18:00	5:20
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	8:24	0:06
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:18	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	0	0	25:54	5:02
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	19:29	2:09
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:20	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	16:53	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:02	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:32	0:27
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	30	28	2	.933	61:47	OT loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Donato	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	2	14:06	1:16
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	9	1	0	+1	0	24:37	2:52
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	21:21	2:59
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:56	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	4	20:32	1:08
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:39	2:49
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:07	2:43
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:22	1:08
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:49	0:57
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:47	0:04
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:32	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	2	6	0	+2	0	23:14	2:57
W. Kaiser	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	19:50	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	24:57	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	15:08	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:46	0:04
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:52	1:03
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	11:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	39	38	1	.974	62:38	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier16:03B. Sennecke15:50M. McTavish15:00

Line 2C. Kreider13:57L. Carlsson14:14A. Killorn13:01

Line 3F. Vatrano13:29T. Terry9:41M. Granlund11:23

Line 4S. Colangelo8:18R. Poehling7:18

Pair 1O. Zellweger15:46J. Trouba14:59

Pair 2R. Gudas11:54J. LaCombe15:36

Pair 3P. Mintyukov10:17D. Helleson15:43

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky17:23C. Bedard18:44T. Bertuzzi15:24

Line 2I. Mikheyev14:48F. Nazar12:50T. Teravainen14:28

Line 3R. Donato11:31R. Greene9:29C. Dach10:52

Line 4L. Reichel7:16L. Slaggert7:32

Pair 1A. Vlasic19:34S. Rinzel17:38

Pair 2C. Murphy9:57W. Kaiser15:46

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk11:26A. Levshunov10:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.2, CHI 3.1	ANA 1, CHI 2
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	ANA 29.0, CHI 27.8	ANA 39, CHI 30
Win chance	ANA 51%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.3	4	0.72	0	27%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.7	5	0.78	1	27%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	9	0.90	1	27%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	0	0.78	1	27%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.3	3	0.48	0	23%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.3	2	0.59	0	26%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.2	2	0.68	0	34%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.2	2	0.64	2	25%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	3	0.70	1	25%	1
CHI S. Rinzel	2.0	2	0.46	1	8%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.0	1	0.72	0	24%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	1	0.66	0	26%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	0	0.54	0	23%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	6	0.33	0	8%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	4	0.59	1	13%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.7	6	0.72	0	18%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.58	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	0	0.74	0	22%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.4	1	0.42	0	22%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.4	0	0.23	1	6%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.3	1	0.38	0	13%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.3	1	0.24	0	5%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.3	1	0.30	0	9%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	3	0.21	0	5%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.32	0	4%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	0	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.28	0	3%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.35	0	14%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	1	0.31	0	2%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	1	0.25	0	10%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	1	0.30	0	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	2	0.28	0	5%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	2	0.15	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	0.7	0	0.27	0	14%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.