Game Recap: ANA 3, CHI 5, November 30, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA3

FinalSun, Nov 30, 2025Every game that night

CHI5

CHI beat ANA 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.09. ANA outshot CHI 26 to 18. C. Bedard led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). C. Gauthier had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.7. S. Knight stopped 23 of 26.

Team Stats

ANACHI

26Shots on goal18

2.09Expected goals3.36

59Shot attempts46

205v5 shots on goal13

0/3Power play2/4

22Hits15

9Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

9Giveaways16

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.09 xGCHI 3.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA26 on goal, 3 scored

CHI17 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	21:31	4:15
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	8	1	0	+1	0	18:33	4:11
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:16	4:09
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:40	4:25
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	18:01	1:49
B. Sennecke	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	15:06	1:38
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:33	1:39
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:24	1:45
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:21	0:00
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	11:31	0:04
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:12	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:48	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:49	1:50
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	21:38	4:09
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:15	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:48	0:06
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	17:47	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	+1	0	16:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	16	13	3	.813	48:27
V. Husso	1	0	1	.000	9:01	Loss

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	2	2	4	5	0	0	+2	0	20:14	4:31
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	2	18:38	1:41
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	4	18:33	4:27
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:33	4:16
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:45	4:26
R. Greene	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	16:14	1:24
C. Dach	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-1	0	11:58	1:29
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:29	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:57	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:53	1:26
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	11:02	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	15:21	4:38
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	19:58	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:41	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	17:23	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	14:27	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:01	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:16	1:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	26	23	3	.885	59:37	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider12:18M. McTavish14:05B. Sennecke12:29

Line 2L. Carlsson11:47T. Terry11:30C. Gauthier12:29

Line 3R. Strome11:09F. Vatrano10:07R. Johnston10:43

Line 4A. Killorn9:57N. Nesterenko9:45R. Poehling9:16

Pair 1P. Mintyukov16:45D. Helleson15:56

Pair 2J. Trouba14:05O. Zellweger15:10

Pair 3R. Gudas15:16J. LaCombe13:03

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard13:47A. Burakovsky13:11R. Greene11:40

Line 2J. Dickinson13:28I. Mikheyev14:51T. Teravainen13:24

Line 3R. Donato11:04C. Dach9:36O. Moore11:00

Line 4T. Bertuzzi11:04F. Nazar12:24

Pair 1A. Vlasic14:00L. Crevier11:48

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk13:58S. Rinzel11:34

Pair 3C. Murphy11:09W. Kaiser17:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.2, CHI 3.1	ANA 3, CHI 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	ANA 30.3, CHI 28.3	ANA 26, CHI 18
Win chance	ANA 52%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.7	8	0.93	2	32%	1
CHI C. Bedard	3.1	5	1.06	4	31%	2
ANA T. Terry	2.7	2	0.90	2	29%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.5	0	0.95	1	30%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.4	1	0.72	1	36%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.4	0	0.75	1	26%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.2	0	0.65	0	26%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.2	2	0.76	1	30%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	0	0.61	1	22%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	2.0	2	0.65	0	15%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.0	3	0.50	0	24%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	2.0	2	0.36	1	11%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	1.9	1	0.70	1	22%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.9	1	0.36	0	19%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.8	1	0.67	1	22%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.51	0	21%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	0	0.82	1	25%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	0	0.35	0	8%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.5	1	0.40	1	18%	1
CHI S. Rinzel	1.4	1	0.36	0	4%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.4	2	0.42	0	13%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.4	1	0.54	1	6%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.35	0	16%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	0	0.30	0	12%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	0	0.42	0	12%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	1	0.22	0	4%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	2	0.40	0	15%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	1	0.25	1	10%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	2	0.21	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	1	0.31	0	8%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.28	0	2%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	1	0.24	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.