Game Recap: ANA 1, COL 4, November 11, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA1

FinalTue, Nov 11, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 3.05. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Carlsson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Wedgewood stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	0	0	1
COL	1	1	2	4

1st 0:28COLA. Lehkonen0.05 xG
1st 18:16ANAL. Carlsson0.19 xG
2nd 11:37COLG. Landeskog0.13 xG
3rd 7:02COLM. NecasPP0.10 xG
3rd 17:39COLP. KellyEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

ANACOL

36Shots on goal36

3.05Expected goals4.00

60Shot attempts75

285v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play1/4

26Hits16

19Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways12

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.05 xGCOL 4.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA34 on goal, 1 scored

COL35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	-2	0	19:22	2:27
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-2	0	18:36	2:26
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	17:11	2:42
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:08	1:18
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:41	1:35
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:26	0:57
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	15:24	2:38
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:32	0:00
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:37	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:40	0:35
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	8:52	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:54	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	3	2	5	0	2	23:25	1:14
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-3	2	23:52	2:51
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	-2	0	20:59	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	18:42	1:17
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	2	6	+1	4	15:49	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	35	32	3	.914	58:46	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	3	3	3	0	2	+2	0	20:59	6:01
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	2	19:57	5:05
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	20:56	6:12
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:32	1:59
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	0	13:15	1:04
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:57	1:08
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	10:18	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:05	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:41	1:02
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:33	5:15
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:25	1:05
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6:42	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+2	0	24:54	5:06
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	14:59	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	0	24:48	2:09
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:01	0:09
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	18:52	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish13:09C. Gauthier13:43B. Sennecke13:29

Line 2L. Carlsson12:07C. Kreider11:32T. Terry11:26

Line 3R. Poehling11:04N. Nesterenko11:18A. Killorn11:20

Line 4R. Johnston7:54J. Harkins8:52F. Vatrano9:24

Pair 1J. LaCombe15:01D. Helleson17:05

Pair 2J. Trouba16:19O. Zellweger16:37

Pair 3P. Mintyukov13:03I. Moore14:12

COL

Line 1M. Necas14:01N. MacKinnon12:53A. Lehkonen12:30

Line 2B. Nelson11:38R. Colton14:39V. Nichushkin9:49

Line 3V. Olofsson9:05J. Drury14:53G. Landeskog11:58

Line 4P. Kelly8:21Z. Bardakov6:42G. Brindley10:20

Pair 1D. Toews18:19C. Makar16:08

Pair 2B. Burns15:50J. Manson15:54

Pair 3S. Malinski14:29J. Ahcan10:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownTroy Terry ANA Plays in his hometown1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.7, COL 3.9	ANA 1, COL 4
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	ANA 25.2, COL 35.5	ANA 36, COL 36
Win chance	COL 69%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	3	1.57	3	42%	0
COL C. Makar	3.4	3	1.33	1	29%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	5	0.76	0	28%	0
COL M. Necas	2.8	1	1.06	1	32%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.7	1	0.89	1	36%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	4	0.77	2	31%	1
COL V. Olofsson	2.4	0	0.68	0	27%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	4	0.73	1	26%	0
COL B. Burns	2.2	3	0.43	0	9%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	1	0.74	1	31%	0
ANA C. Kreider	2.0	3	0.59	0	31%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.9	2	0.54	0	21%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.9	6	0.73	1	25%	1
COL R. Colton	1.8	1	0.45	0	19%	0
COL J. Manson	1.8	0	0.35	0	9%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.7	3	0.29	1	7%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	2	0.61	1	24%	1
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.62	0	12%	0
COL J. Drury	1.7	1	0.40	0	14%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	1	0.26	0	6%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	1	0.45	0	20%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.6	0	0.32	0	17%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	4	0.49	0	10%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	3	0.32	1	6%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.5	0	0.49	0	19%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	5	0.28	1	12%	1
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	3	0.34	0	14%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.2	2	0.36	0	14%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.0	0	0.35	0	13%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.9	1	0.15	0	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	0	0.11	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.7	2	0.22	0	4%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	2	0.29	0	8%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.6	1	0.13	0	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.13	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.