Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
ANA2
Final/SOWed, Jan 21, 2026Every game that night
COL1

ANA beat COL 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.90 expected goals to 5.02. COL outshot ANA 41 to 16. R. Colton had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Dostal stopped 40 of 41.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdSOT
ANA01012
COL00101
  1. 2nd 1:27ANAJ. Viel0.11 xG
  2. 3rd 16:21COLA. Lehkonen0.15 xG

Team Stats

ANACOL
16Shots on goal41
1.90Expected goals5.02
44Shot attempts86
125v5 shots on goal35
0/1Power play0/2
27Hits16
24Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways24
5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.90 xGCOL 5.02 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTANA goal, 1:27COL goal, 16:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA15 on goal, 1 scored
COL41 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW0114110018:001:09
J. VielLW1011210013:420:00
A. KillornLW0001000020:130:45
M. GranlundC0002030019:421:09
R. PoehlingC0001030017:580:00
B. SenneckeRW0001100016:261:09
C. KreiderLW0001210015:531:09
J. HarkinsC0000300014:340:44
T. WasheC0000220013:480:07
R. StromeC0002110013:360:42
R. JohnstonLW0000300211:400:06
R. GudasD011121+1014:010:00
J. LaCombeD0001210028:211:15
J. TroubaD0000330027:330:46
P. MintyukovD000012-1022:370:45
D. HellesonD000043-1218:350:05
O. ZellwegerD000102+1013:510:00
I. MooreD0000000010:300:09
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal41401.97665:00Win
V. Husso000–0:00

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. NelsonC011400+1021:513:15
A. LehkonenLW101300+1016:500:46
N. MacKinnonC000330-1029:183:58
M. NecasC000122-1027:033:12
V. OlofssonLW000312-1021:113:14
J. DruryC0004000216:070:00
V. NichushkinRW000001+1015:490:47
R. ColtonC0005000012:300:46
P. KellyC0000210012:040:00
T. MakarLW000120007:130:00
G. BrindleyC000200006:480:00
Z. BardakovC000100005:120:00
B. BurnsD011303+1018:120:25
C. MakarD000422-1029:513:35
S. GirardD000010+1021:590:00
S. MalinskiD000400-1021:110:02
J. MansonD0003230018:190:00
J. AhcanD0000110011:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood16151.93865:00OT loss
M. Blackwood000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn16:42M. Granlund14:29B. Sennecke13:06
Line 2J. Viel13:42C. Gauthier15:03R. Poehling15:18
Line 3J. Harkins13:50R. Strome12:54C. Kreider13:53
Line 4T. Washe11:31R. Johnston11:34
Pair 1J. Trouba23:34J. LaCombe23:56
Pair 2D. Helleson18:30P. Mintyukov18:02
Pair 3R. Gudas12:05O. Zellweger12:04

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon22:36M. Necas21:47V. Olofsson17:14
Line 2B. Nelson15:47A. Lehkonen14:23V. Nichushkin13:24
Line 3R. Colton11:44J. Drury14:32G. Brindley6:48
Line 4P. Kelly11:18T. Makar7:13Z. Bardakov5:12
Pair 1C. Makar23:24S. Malinski19:41
Pair 2B. Burns16:35J. Manson16:58
Pair 3S. Girard19:52J. Ahcan11:32

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.8, COL 4.2ANA 2, COL 1
Total goals7.03
Shots on goalANA 27.3, COL 34.7ANA 16, COL 41
Win chanceCOL 70%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.431.69044%0
COL C. Makar2.941.28028%0
ANA C. Gauthier2.840.57124%0
COL M. Necas2.711.24034%0
COL B. Nelson2.640.98137%0
COL A. Lehkonen2.530.86133%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.410.72024%0
COL V. Nichushkin2.400.84033%0
COL S. Malinski2.340.5209%0
COL B. Burns2.330.53112%0
COL R. Colton2.250.54020%0
ANA M. Granlund2.120.67020%0
ANA A. Killorn1.910.41020%0
COL J. Manson1.930.51010%0
COL V. Olofsson1.830.52022%0
ANA C. Kreider1.710.48027%0
ANA J. Trouba1.700.2906%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.610.4308%0
COL P. Kelly1.500.38015%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.410.2406%0
COL J. Drury1.440.39015%0
COL G. Brindley1.320.44016%0
COL S. Girard1.200.4007%0
ANA R. Poehling1.210.35013%0
ANA R. Strome1.220.33011%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.100.3107%0
ANA R. Gudas1.010.1713%0
ANA J. Viel1.010.1118%1
ANA J. Harkins0.800.1307%0
ANA I. Moore0.700.1503%0
ANA T. Washe0.700.19011%0
COL T. Makar0.710.1006%0
ANA D. Helleson0.700.1604%0
COL Z. Bardakov0.610.2807%0
COL J. Ahcan0.600.1404%0
ANA R. Johnston0.500.1504%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.