ANA beat DAL 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.07 expected goals to 3.95. DAL outshot ANA 36 to 27. B. Leason led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Bourque had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. L. Dostal stopped 34 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 0:56ANAO. Zellweger0.03 xG
- 1st 5:44ANAB. Leason0.07 xG
- 2nd 7:39ANAC. GauthierPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 3:31DALE. Lindell0.12 xG
- 3rd 12:08DALM. Duchene0.17 xG
- 3rd 14:32ANAJ. LaCombe0.11 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.07 xGDAL 3.95 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Leason | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:50 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:50 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:48 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:50 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:10 | 0:48 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:50 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:48 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:48 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:21 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:50 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 18:31 | 0:48 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:44 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:43 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:45 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:42 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:01 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:43 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:43 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:44 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26:00 | 1:55 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24:01 | 0:51 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:16 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:08 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 57:22 | Loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.3, DAL 3.8 | ANA 4, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 24.0, DAL 35.0 | ANA 27, DAL 36 |
| Win chance | DAL 74% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.5 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.4 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.1 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 2.0 | 1 | 0.89 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.0 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.8 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.7 | 4 | 0.32 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.0 | 3 | 0.25 | 3 | 11% | 1 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.0 | 5 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.