EDM beat ANA 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.08 expected goals to 3.52. ANA outshot EDM 41 to 32. L. Draisaitl led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). J. Trouba had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. T. Jarry stopped 37 of 41.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 3.52 xGEDM 5.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:17 | 6:13 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 25:31 | 6:13 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:31 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:55 | 5:42 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:18 | 6:13 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4:42 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 26:16 | 6:10 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:03 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:09 | 3:17 |
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:36 | 3:15 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:22 | 3:17 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:15 | 3:15 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:01 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:59 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:13 | 1:01 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:59 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:47 | 3:19 |
| D. Nurse | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:57 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
EDM
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.9, EDM 3.9 | ANA 4, EDM 7 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 26.5, EDM 32.1 | ANA 41, EDM 32 |
| Win chance | EDM 66% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.9 | 3 | 1.95 | 2 | 44% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.4 | 3 | 1.06 | 2 | 44% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 3.3 | 1 | 1.26 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.2 | 1 | 1.69 | 4 | 49% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.1 | 5 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.3 | 7 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.1 | 1 | 1.01 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.9 | 5 | 0.71 | 3 | 19% | 3 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 4 | 0.55 | 3 | 11% | 3 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.8 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 8 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM S. Stastney | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 0.9 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.