Game Recap: ANA 2, EDM 4, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA2

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat ANA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.34 expected goals to 3.53. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. McDavid had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. C. Ingram stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	0	2	2
EDM	0	1	3	4

2nd 7:36EDMC. McDavid0.14 xG
3rd 4:59EDMJ. Roslovic0.09 xG
3rd 6:10EDMM. Savoie0.09 xG
3rd 6:53ANAB. Sennecke0.12 xG
3rd 9:41ANAC. Gauthier0.16 xG
3rd 19:43EDMZ. HymanEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

ANAEDM

33Shots on goal34

3.53Expected goals4.34

68Shot attempts61

275v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play0/3

15Hits22

15Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways15

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.53 xGEDM 4.34 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA33 on goal, 2 scored

EDM32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Sennecke	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	15:20	1:20
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:02	1:59
J. Viel	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	14:21	0:47
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:15	4:04
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:22	3:53
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:20	1:56
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-3	0	17:49	3:53
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:17	3:48
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	2	15:24	0:00
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	13:51	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:52	2:12
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	6:00	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	2	2	4	1	6	-1	0	28:07	2:37
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	25:20	3:23
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	21:17	0:08
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:04	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:55	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	33	30	3	.909	58:14	Loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	2	3	6	0	0	+2	0	22:29	5:13
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	3	3	0	+2	0	17:45	5:14
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:29	3:58
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	3	4	2	+1	0	16:52	2:02
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	11:20	0:48
M. Jones	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	10:06	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+2	0	17:52	5:12
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:54	0:46
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	14:05	0:00
J. Samanski	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	11:17	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	4	10:46	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	2	2	5	0	2	+1	0	26:18	5:11
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	21:06	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	22:59	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:07	0:47
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:56	0:49
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn13:31M. Granlund13:38B. Sennecke13:41

Line 2T. Terry12:02L. Carlsson12:43C. Kreider12:21

Line 3R. Poehling13:16J. Viel13:34C. Gauthier11:36

Line 4T. Washe9:58F. Vatrano6:00M. McTavish6:40

Pair 1J. Trouba16:31J. LaCombe19:48

Pair 2J. Carlson19:55I. Moore11:10

Pair 3O. Zellweger13:32D. Helleson11:14

EDM

Line 1V. Podkolzin14:49C. McDavid16:44M. Savoie13:54

Line 2K. Kapanen10:03J. Samanski9:29J. Dickinson11:11

Line 3Z. Hyman12:03R. Nugent-Hopkins10:15J. Roslovic10:32

Line 4C. Lazar9:10M. Jones10:06A. Henrique10:21

Pair 1C. Murphy18:21D. Nurse19:44

Pair 2M. Ekholm15:26E. Bouchard16:46

Pair 3J. Walman11:47T. Emberson10:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.1, EDM 3.6	ANA 2, EDM 4
Total goals	6.6	6
Shots on goal	ANA 27.8, EDM 31.2	ANA 33, EDM 34
Win chance	EDM 58%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	6	1.70	3	40%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	3.4	5	0.82	1	32%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	5	1.21	2	22%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	3	0.92	2	40%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	2.2	1	0.80	0	26%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	2	0.80	0	26%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.1	2	0.64	1	21%	1
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	2	0.40	0	11%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.0	4	0.84	0	25%	0
EDM M. Savoie	2.0	1	0.56	1	20%	1
ANA C. Kreider	1.9	2	0.70	0	33%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.9	2	0.54	1	22%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	0	0.51	0	22%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	1	0.68	0	20%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.8	0	0.43	0	12%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.8	3	0.51	1	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	1	0.59	0	11%	0
ANA J. Carlson	1.8	4	0.69	2	11%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.7	0	0.46	0	17%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	2	0.36	0	8%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.6	0	0.47	0	18%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.5	3	0.56	1	10%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.5	1	0.31	0	16%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.4	1	0.50	0	17%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.3	3	0.22	1	10%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.2	1	0.34	0	16%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.2	1	0.22	0	6%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.2	1	0.28	1	7%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.1	1	0.27	0	13%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.0	3	0.21	0	10%	0
EDM M. Jones	1.0	2	0.20	1	9%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.20	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.6	1	0.20	0	5%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.6	1	0.15	0	7%	0
EDM J. Samanski	0.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.