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Game Recap
ANA1
FinalTue, Apr 28, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night
EDM4

EDM beat ANA 4-1, with the chances close: 2.12 expected goals to 2.00. ANA outshot EDM 30 to 20. E. Bouchard led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). C. Ingram stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA0101
EDM3104
  1. 1st 2:22EDMV. Podkolzin0.15 xG
  2. 1st 8:33EDMZ. Hyman0.08 xG
  3. 1st 10:13EDML. Draisaitl0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 8:26ANAA. KillornPP0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 10:24EDML. DraisaitlPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

ANAEDM
30Shots on goal20
2.00Expected goals2.12
61Shot attempts38
265v5 shots on goal16
1/2Power play1/4
40Hits44
7Blocked shots16
10Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways17
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.00 xGEDM 2.12 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdEDM goal, 2:22EDM goal, 8:33EDM goal, 10:13ANA goal, 8:26EDM goal, 10:24

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA30 on goal, 1 scored
EDM20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW0112600016:390:22
A. KillornLW101330-2015:240:22
M. McTavishC0110220011:200:22
L. CarlssonC000410-1017:140:52
M. GranlundC000310-1216:350:52
B. SenneckeRW000021-3016:100:25
T. TerryRW0002100015:270:47
R. PoehlingC000200-1014:460:00
C. KreiderLW000020-1013:460:49
J. VielLW0003500212:210:05
T. WasheC0000400212:040:00
J. LaCombeD000212-2028:040:37
J. CarlsonD0004200025:340:37
J. TroubaD000151-2225:080:00
P. MintyukovD0002000017:230:00
T. HindsD000031-1013:490:00
I. MooreD0001200210:200:00
D. HellesonD000100-108:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal963.66710:13Loss
V. Husso11101.90947:14

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC022401+1024:095:31
L. DraisaitlC202401+1223:225:33
R. Nugent-HopkinsC022130+2018:575:23
Z. HymanLW101121+2418:075:31
V. PodkolzinRW101170+2012:340:38
K. KapanenRW000140+1017:291:03
J. RoslovicC0002110012:180:00
M. SavoieC0000100011:500:23
C. LazarC0000510010:350:00
J. DickinsonC0001200010:200:00
J. SamanskiC000000009:150:16
C. DachC000060029:110:00
E. BouchardD033011+2027:305:49
D. NurseD000122+1023:191:00
C. MurphyD000144+1020:330:00
M. EkholmD000113+2017:120:42
J. WalmanD0001200016:380:58
T. EmbersonD0001310010:190:03
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram30291.96760:00Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn10:56M. Granlund12:11B. Sennecke12:09
Line 2T. Terry12:03L. Carlsson12:56C. Gauthier12:28
Line 3C. Kreider10:51R. Poehling10:32M. McTavish9:50
Line 4J. Viel11:06T. Washe9:06
Pair 1J. LaCombe22:41J. Trouba18:30
Pair 2J. Carlson17:59P. Mintyukov11:17
Pair 3T. Hinds10:40D. Helleson8:02

EDM

Line 1K. Kapanen14:05C. McDavid15:10L. Draisaitl15:37
Line 2Z. Hyman10:59R. Nugent-Hopkins10:43V. Podkolzin9:08
Line 3J. Roslovic11:04M. Savoie10:06J. Dickinson8:59
Line 4C. Dach9:00J. Samanski8:49C. Lazar9:47
Pair 1C. Murphy16:52D. Nurse16:53
Pair 2M. Ekholm14:41E. Bouchard16:28
Pair 3J. Walman13:58T. Emberson10:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.4, EDM 3.7ANA 1, EDM 4
Total goals7.15
Shots on goalANA 29.6, EDM 30.7ANA 30, EDM 20
Win chanceEDM 56%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.641.76242%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.220.75132%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.741.47243%2
EDM E. Bouchard2.701.25321%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.610.90139%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.540.74026%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.500.65022%0
ANA T. Terry2.420.77025%0
EDM D. Nurse2.210.41010%0
EDM M. Savoie2.000.54021%0
ANA A. Killorn2.030.56123%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.010.89227%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.910.56120%1
ANA M. McTavish1.900.54120%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.910.51019%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.820.54021%0
ANA M. Granlund1.830.69020%0
ANA J. Carlson1.840.68011%0
ANA J. Trouba1.810.3608%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.720.71011%0
EDM J. Walman1.610.41010%0
ANA C. Kreider1.500.54026%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.510.57010%0
ANA R. Poehling1.320.45016%0
ANA J. Viel1.330.23010%0
EDM C. Murphy1.210.3208%0
EDM J. Dickinson1.110.34015%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.020.3107%0
ANA T. Washe0.900.1809%0
EDM C. Dach0.800.2209%0
EDM C. Lazar0.700.1708%0
ANA I. Moore0.710.1203%0
ANA T. Hinds0.600.1202%0
EDM T. Emberson0.610.1903%0
EDM J. Samanski0.600.25013%0
ANA D. Helleson0.510.1703%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.