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Game Recap
ANA5
FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night
EDM4

ANA beat EDM 5-4, with the chances close: 3.91 expected goals to 3.62. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). L. Draisaitl had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. L. Brossoit stopped 23 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA1315
EDM1124
  1. 1st 9:26ANAC. GauthierPP0.13 xG
  2. 1st 19:41EDME. BouchardPP0.11 xG
  3. 2nd 2:34EDMC. McDavidSH0.02 xG
  4. 2nd 3:37ANAP. Mintyukov0.02 xG
  5. 2nd 6:15ANAP. Mintyukov0.71 xG
  6. 2nd 19:22ANAB. Sennecke0.42 xG
  7. 3rd 1:42ANAB. SenneckePP0.19 xG
  8. 3rd 16:24EDMK. KapanenPP0.11 xG
  9. 3rd 19:15EDML. Draisaitl0.38 xG

Team Stats

ANAEDM
21Shots on goal27
3.91Expected goals3.62
46Shot attempts56
115v5 shots on goal15
2/8Power play2/6
23Hits12
14Blocked shots9
19Penalty minutes46
14Giveaways20
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.91 xGEDM 3.62 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdANA goal, 9:26EDM goal, 19:41EDM goal, 2:34ANA goal, 3:37ANA goal, 6:15ANA goal, 19:22ANA goal, 1:42EDM goal, 16:24EDM goal, 19:15

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA21 on goal, 5 scored
EDM26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. SenneckeRW213401+1016:368:35
L. CarlssonC022200+1025:309:48
C. GauthierLW112301+1017:579:55
M. GranlundC011100+1021:049:32
J. CaulfieldRW0112510018:204:32
A. KillornLW000010-1020:123:36
T. WasheC0001100214:320:24
R. McQueenC000121-1011:573:37
N. MyatovicLW0000100010:150:20
N. NesterenkoC000020-109:512:43
S. ColangeloRW000011008:080:06
J. MalottLW000150008:040:16
P. MintyukovD213401+2516:011:00
J. LaCombeD0110020233:0910:25
D. HellesonD011031+1223:100:51
T. LuneauD011103+1015:572:43
N. WarrenD000121-1611:320:16
T. MitchellD000001028:460:16
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Brossoit27234.85260:00Win
L. Dostal000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC134310+1024:255:36
L. DraisaitlC112601+1224:065:35
R. Nugent-HopkinsC0221100419:313:50
K. KapanenRW1013000520:003:40
C. DachC000300-1017:052:58
J. DickinsonC000021-1013:520:36
O. MichaelsRW000100-1012:282:14
M. JosephRW000010-1211:120:00
A. FormentonLW0001200010:410:00
F. HallanderC0000010210:332:49
M. JonesLW000020026:100:00
V. PodkolzinRW0002000272:350:00
E. BouchardD1123000224:126:01
M. EkholmD0111120021:070:53
R. SheaD0001000023:371:58
C. MurphyD0001110019:260:00
S. MukhamadullinD000111-1013:560:00
J. WalmanD000002-1012:180:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Tomkins21165.76257:14Loss
B. Epp000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1A. Killorn11:11J. Caulfield11:28L. Carlsson10:02
Line 2N. Myatovic9:15T. Washe9:31S. Colangelo7:23
Line 3R. McQueen8:41N. Nesterenko7:29J. Malott7:34
Line 4C. Gauthier6:49B. Sennecke7:43M. Granlund7:21
Pair 1D. Helleson15:12J. LaCombe16:04
Pair 2P. Mintyukov10:57N. Warren10:15
Pair 3T. Luneau10:03T. Mitchell7:32

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl13:18C. McDavid13:40C. Dach13:00
Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins11:10K. Kapanen8:53
Line 3J. Dickinson7:39A. Formenton6:15M. Joseph7:13
Line 4F. Hallander7:44M. Jones6:10O. Michaels6:33
Pair 1J. Walman11:48S. Mukhamadullin10:15
Pair 2C. Murphy11:24R. Shea11:20
Pair 3M. Ekholm13:02E. Bouchard12:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5-120+1053Under
EDM C. McDavid3.5+120-1413Under
EDM L. Draisaitl3.5+123-1356Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+100-1204Over
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-140+1153Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+135-1602Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5+106-1200Under
EDM C. Dach1.5-108-1103Over
EDM C. Murphy1.5+175-2201Under
ANA J. Caulfield1.5+155-1602Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5+115-1450Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-150+1223Over
EDM M. Ekholm1.5+108-1251Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-140+1221Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.5-180+1461Under
ANA T. Luneau1.5+155-1901Under
EDM V. Podkolzin1.5-140+1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.2, EDM 3.6ANA 5, EDM 4
Total goals6.89
Shots on goalANA 27.5, EDM 28.0ANA 21, EDM 27
Win chanceEDM 56%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.730.90236%1
EDM C. McDavid3.331.84442%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.961.60245%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.631.27223%1
ANA B. Sennecke2.640.83331%2
ANA L. Carlsson2.420.87228%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.010.94227%0
EDM K. Kapanen2.030.65122%1
EDM V. Podkolzin1.920.62025%0
ANA M. Granlund1.910.79124%0
ANA A. Killorn1.600.41018%0
EDM C. Dach1.530.39016%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.500.70111%0
EDM A. Formenton1.510.38018%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.410.52110%0
EDM J. Walman1.300.3008%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.200.31014%0
ANA J. Caulfield1.220.43118%0
ANA R. McQueen1.210.18010%0
EDM C. Murphy1.110.2506%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.100.25011%0
EDM F. Hallander1.100.31013%0
ANA T. Luneau1.010.3416%0
ANA J. Malott1.010.22010%0
ANA T. Washe1.010.26012%0
EDM M. Jones1.000.24011%0
EDM R. Shea1.010.4507%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.040.2536%2
EDM M. Joseph0.900.33011%0
EDM J. Dickinson0.900.29012%0
ANA D. Helleson0.900.2515%0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin0.910.2004%0
EDM O. Michaels0.810.2308%0
ANA N. Warren0.710.2202%0
ANA T. Mitchell0.600.1203%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.