FLA beat ANA 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 2.14. FLA outshot ANA 45 to 34. F. Vatrano had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Knight stopped 34 of 34.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.14 xGFLA 3.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:39 | 4:11 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 4:05 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:23 | 4:02 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:50 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 4:11 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:53 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:46 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 2:49 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:02 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:25 | 0:02 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 24:56 | 4:16 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:53 | 0:05 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:06 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:39 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:03 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:30 | 1:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:41 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 3:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 2:48 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 1:09 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:41 | 1:00 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 1:14 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 2:46 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4:34 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:51 | 0:05 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 2:51 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:12 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:14 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 34 | 34 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:58 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.5, FLA 3.5 | ANA 0, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 25.4, FLA 34.7 | ANA 34, FLA 45 |
| Win chance | FLA 67% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 3 | 1.18 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 3.0 | 0 | 1.15 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.9 | 5 | 0.87 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 6 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.7 | 5 | 0.52 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.7 | 9 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.6 | 3 | 1.20 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.5 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.4 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.8 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.