Game Recap: ANA 3, FLA 2 (SO), October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA3

Final/SOTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

FLA2

ANA beat FLA 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.35 expected goals to 3.53. FLA outshot ANA 33 to 17. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Reinhart had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. L. Dostal stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
ANA	0	2	0	1	3
FLA	0	0	2	0	2

2nd 9:59ANAL. CarlssonSH0.18 xG
2nd 12:27ANAC. GauthierPP0.12 xG
3rd 11:12FLAA. Lundell0.14 xG
3rd 16:54FLAS. Reinhart0.10 xG

Team Stats

ANAFLA

17Shots on goal33

2.35Expected goals3.53

54Shot attempts72

65v5 shots on goal20

1/5Power play0/4

19Hits30

17Blocked shots22

13Penalty minutes15

16Giveaways15

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.35 xGFLA 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA17 on goal, 2 scored

FLA31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	0	21:22	5:00
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:29	5:00
C. Gauthier	LW	1	0	1	7	1	1	0	0	19:46	5:01
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	21:22	4:44
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	18:06	3:02
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:33	2:59
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:18	0:03
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:27	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:49	2:53
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:47	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	5	9:57	0:03
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	6:35	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	-1	0	29:00	4:58
D. Helleson	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	18:59	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	23:23	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	2	19:57	3:02
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	18:28	2:58
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:27	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	33	31	2	.939	64:21	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	9	1	1	0	0	25:18	5:43
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	21:03	5:01
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	2	19:04	2:01
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	18:59	4:58
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	17:32	3:20
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	2	21:42	1:58
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:35	2:22
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	11:27	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	11:12	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	8:45	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	7:35	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:34	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	28:08	5:40
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	24:34	2:01
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	0	23:53	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	2	19:52	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	12:59	1:41
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	17	15	2	.882	64:44	OT loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier13:46B. Sennecke14:58M. McTavish13:42

Line 2T. Terry12:28N. Nesterenko13:27L. Carlsson12:46

Line 3R. Johnston9:46R. Poehling11:28A. Killorn9:26

Line 4S. Colangelo10:17J. Harkins6:35F. Vatrano7:35

Pair 1J. LaCombe17:55D. Helleson16:00

Pair 2J. Trouba17:46O. Zellweger13:49

Pair 3P. Mintyukov13:08I. Moore12:18

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe16:17E. Rodrigues17:40S. Reinhart15:08

Line 2E. Luostarinen11:24A. Lundell10:32M. Samoskevich12:58

Line 3A. Greer10:43S. Bennett12:15J. Boqvist11:00

Line 4L. Kunin6:05N. Gregor6:32C. Schwindt5:34

Pair 1G. Forsling19:06A. Ekblad17:35

Pair 2S. Jones16:19N. Mikkola15:42

Pair 3J. Petry10:26U. Balinskis11:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamA.J. Greer ANA First game back in South Florida, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.6, FLA 3.5	ANA 3, FLA 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	ANA 25.8, FLA 33.1	ANA 17, FLA 33
Win chance	FLA 65%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	3.1	9	1.13	1	43%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	1	0.75	0	30%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.9	1	0.81	1	31%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.8	7	0.60	1	24%	1
FLA A. Lundell	2.5	3	0.79	1	23%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.3	1	0.52	1	20%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	2.1	1	0.61	0	13%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	3	0.53	0	19%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	1	0.44	0	12%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	2	0.60	1	14%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	1	0.57	0	21%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.0	1	0.65	1	24%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.9	2	0.26	0	6%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.8	0	0.39	0	19%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	2	0.64	2	22%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	1	0.48	1	10%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	1	0.49	1	16%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	0	0.26	0	5%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.5	1	0.45	0	20%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.5	0	0.42	0	17%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.4	3	0.22	0	11%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.4	0	0.26	1	7%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	2	0.19	0	5%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.1	0	0.19	0	11%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.30	0	14%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	1	0.15	0	3%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	0.9	0	0.27	0	16%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.9	2	0.28	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
ANA R. Poehling	0.8	1	0.28	0	11%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.12	0	6%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	0	0.19	0	7%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.3	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.