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Game Recap
ANA3
LAK2
ANA beat LAK 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 3.39. J. Armia led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Armia had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. L. Dostal stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 1:38LAKQ. Byfield0.05 xG
- 2nd 11:33LAKJ. Armia0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:12ANAR. Strome0.09 xG
- 2nd 14:56ANAT. Washe0.09 xG
Team Stats
ANALAK
28Shots on goal28
3.05Expected goals3.39
56Shot attempts65
195v5 shots on goal22
0/2Power play0/3
21Hits15
18Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways15
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 3.05 xGLAK 3.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:59 | 2:04 |
| T. Washe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:03 |
| R. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:53 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 2:05 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:07 | 1:56 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 2:04 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 1:51 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:28 | 0:03 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 1:54 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:54 | 2:01 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 27:06 | 1:51 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 26:14 | 0:03 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:09 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:03 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:06 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:23 | 3:37 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:04 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 3:54 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 2:16 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 3:51 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:53 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 2:03 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 1:49 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:02 | 2:03 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:07 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:18 | 2:08 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:12 | 3:52 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:04 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1M. Granlund14:49B. Sennecke19:21A. Killorn14:14
Line 2R. Johnston12:25T. Washe11:43
Line 3R. Strome11:03M. McTavish11:20C. Gauthier6:05
Line 4R. Poehling12:19J. Harkins10:00S. Colangelo8:48
Pair 1J. LaCombe21:49J. Trouba20:50
Pair 2R. Gudas16:34O. Zellweger14:35
Pair 3P. Mintyukov11:31D. Helleson10:47
LAK
Line 1A. Kempe12:12A. Laferriere14:54J. Malott11:35
Line 2K. Fiala15:18A. Kuzmenko12:08A. Turcotte11:08
Line 3J. Armia13:09Q. Byfield12:37W. Foegele10:43
Line 4A. Lee11:24S. Helenius10:11T. Ward8:59
Pair 1B. Dumoulin16:54C. Ceci16:55
Pair 2D. Doughty17:08M. Anderson17:11
Pair 3B. Clarke14:08J. Edmundson13:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.8, LAK 3.3 | ANA 3, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.4, LAK 29.7 | ANA 28, LAK 28 |
| Win chance | LAK 58% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.1 | 4 | 0.99 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 1 | 1.03 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.9 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.3 | 4 | 0.82 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.1 | 6 | 0.72 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.9 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.7 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.3 | 6 | 0.43 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK A. Lee | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.