Game Recap: ANA 1, NJD 4, December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA1

FinalSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

NJD4

NJD beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 2.58. ANA outshot NJD 31 to 22. O. Palat led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Terry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Allen stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	0	0	1
NJD	1	2	1	4

1st 13:18ANAT. Terry0.22 xG
1st 16:09NJDS. Noesen0.25 xG
2nd 5:52NJDP. Cotter0.09 xG
2nd 17:04NJDC. Glass0.22 xG
3rd 18:00NJDC. BrownEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

ANANJD

31Shots on goal22

2.58Expected goals3.94

61Shot attempts59

255v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/2

17Hits17

21Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways14

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.58 xGNJD 3.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA30 on goal, 1 scored

NJD21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:53	3:59
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	18:36	3:26
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:03	4:19
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:52	4:00
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-4	0	17:18	2:34
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	14:19	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	14:19	2:01
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:39	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:47	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:12	1:41
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	11:37	2:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:25	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	24:33	3:35
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	20:26	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:41	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	-1	0	17:49	2:25
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	16:50	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	21	18	3	.857	57:50	Loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Palat	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	14:28	1:56
J. Lammikko	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+2	0	13:38	0:00
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	19:06	2:21
C. Brown	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:10	1:18
P. Cotter	LW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+2	0	16:24	0:40
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	14:42	2:01
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	14:28	0:54
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	19:57	2:31
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:36	1:08
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:40	0:00
X. Parent	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:50	0:04
A. Crookshank	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7:47	0:00
C. White	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	14:38	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	24:33	2:02
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	22:37	1:13
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	22:11	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	2	20:12	0:07
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Kreider14:58L. Carlsson17:01T. Terry13:24

Line 2R. Johnston12:47R. Poehling11:39A. Killorn12:40

Line 3M. McTavish9:13B. Sennecke12:58M. Granlund12:00

Line 4F. Vatrano8:18R. Strome10:01C. Gauthier11:26

Pair 1J. Trouba17:58J. LaCombe17:48

Pair 2O. Zellweger15:24I. Moore19:04

Pair 3R. Gudas11:01D. Helleson15:15

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier14:31D. Mercer15:04J. Bratt14:40

Line 2J. Lammikko13:34P. Cotter15:44S. Noesen12:41

Line 3C. Brown11:16C. Glass12:18O. Palat10:00

Line 4L. Glendening8:04A. Crookshank7:47X. Parent9:46

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:47J. Siegenthaler17:45

Pair 2B. Dillon17:25L. Hughes17:27

Pair 3C. White13:03D. Cholowski13:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.0, NJD 3.2	ANA 1, NJD 4
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	ANA 29.1, NJD 31.3	ANA 31, NJD 22
Win chance	NJD 53%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	1	0.79	0	28%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	3.0	1	0.62	0	15%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	0	1.05	1	28%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	2	0.97	0	34%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	6	0.80	1	26%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.3	2	0.67	0	34%	0
NJD L. Hughes	2.2	2	0.61	0	7%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.2	2	0.83	1	28%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	2.0	1	0.57	0	12%	0
NJD D. Mercer	2.0	3	0.59	0	26%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	1	0.60	0	22%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.9	5	0.72	0	22%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.8	2	0.38	0	19%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	1	0.34	0	9%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.7	4	0.37	1	15%	1
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	3	0.31	0	7%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.7	0	0.64	0	17%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.7	1	0.43	1	19%	1
NJD C. Brown	1.6	2	0.49	1	18%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.4	1	0.38	0	17%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.3	3	0.39	2	17%	0
NJD A. Crookshank	1.3	0	0.23	0	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.37	0	14%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.20	0	3%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	2	0.29	1	15%	1
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.0	0	0.31	0	10%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	2	0.23	0	6%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.8	1	0.16	2	8%	0
NJD C. White	0.7	0	0.15	2	2%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	0	0.13	0	8%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	3	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.