Game Recap: ANA 5, NSH 2, October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA5

FinalTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

ANA beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.19 expected goals to 1.91. R. Johnston led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Dostal stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	3	1	5
NSH	1	1	0	2

1st 8:52ANAR. Johnston0.43 xG
1st 14:29NSHT. Jost0.09 xG
2nd 4:23ANAL. Carlsson0.26 xG
2nd 6:39NSHF. Forsberg0.06 xG
2nd 15:07ANAC. Gauthier0.10 xG
2nd 16:59ANAB. Sennecke0.15 xG
3rd 11:40ANAT. Terry0.32 xG

Team Stats

ANANSH

32Shots on goal28

4.19Expected goals1.91

65Shot attempts54

245v5 shots on goal27

0/5Power play0/1

23Hits16

9Blocked shots11

12Penalty minutes20

13Giveaways16

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 4.19 xGNSH 1.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA32 on goal, 5 scored

NSH27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Johnston	LW	1	2	3	1	4	0	+3	5	8:53	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	2	15:46	3:24
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	18:07	4:27
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:05	3:43
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:12	3:34
B. Sennecke	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:05	2:40
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	12:00	1:27
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:20	3:51
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	16:29	0:53
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	15:29	3:43
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	6	0	-1	5	15:03	2:27
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:11	1:25
J. Trouba	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+4	0	19:55	0:52
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	15:19	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:58	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	23:04	4:26
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+3	0	20:44	4:20
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:51	1:18

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	28	26	2	.929	59:29	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	-1	0	17:47	1:53
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:08	1:45
T. Jost	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	14:19	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	16:13	0:07
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:47	1:54
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:13	0:15
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:54	1:36
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-1	2	13:42	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	5	13:39	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:24	0:00
B. Martin	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:51	0:24
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	5	10:05	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	2	23:19	1:36
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:17	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	15:24	0:06
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	21:25	0:24
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	20:54	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	27	5	.844	60:00	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish13:38B. Sennecke14:25F. Vatrano12:36

Line 2M. Granlund13:12T. Terry13:06N. Nesterenko14:43

Line 3A. Killorn10:53L. Carlsson12:16C. Gauthier12:22

Line 4R. Poehling10:12S. Colangelo10:46R. Johnston8:53

Pair 1J. LaCombe17:03D. Helleson17:06

Pair 2J. Trouba18:09O. Zellweger16:24

Pair 3R. Gudas14:13P. Mintyukov14:58

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos13:53M. Bunting13:58E. Haula12:41

Line 2F. Forsberg15:23R. O'Reilly12:58L. Evangelista11:47

Line 3C. Smith10:43O. Wiesblatt10:05M. McCarron10:20

Line 4F. Svechkov12:27T. Jost11:22B. Martin10:27

Pair 1R. Josi19:24A. Wilsby19:06

Pair 2B. Skjei15:37N. Perbix15:41

Pair 3S. Stastney14:33J. Barron14:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.9, NSH 3.3	ANA 5, NSH 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	ANA 27.3, NSH 32.2	ANA 32, NSH 28
Win chance	NSH 57%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	3	1.09	1	39%	1
NSH R. Josi	3.2	2	0.96	1	22%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.1	2	0.70	2	25%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.6	1	0.76	1	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	1	0.92	0	36%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	2	0.57	0	19%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.2	1	0.55	0	15%	0
NSH M. Bunting	2.1	0	0.63	0	24%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.1	3	0.73	1	24%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	2.1	2	0.45	0	20%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	0	0.79	1	27%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.0	2	0.58	1	19%	1
ANA L. Carlsson	1.9	3	0.72	1	23%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.8	2	0.47	0	20%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	3	0.32	0	9%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	1	0.53	0	21%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	1	0.57	0	14%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.7	3	0.70	0	17%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.5	2	0.30	1	11%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	0	0.32	0	15%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.4	3	0.28	0	5%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	3	0.28	0	13%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.3	1	0.26	1	10%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.2	1	0.37	0	8%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.2	2	0.23	2	6%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.2	2	0.28	0	9%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	3	0.25	0	10%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.2	0	0.35	0	18%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.2	3	0.23	0	12%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	2	0.22	1	4%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.9	1	0.35	0	10%	0
ANA R. Poehling	0.9	1	0.31	1	11%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.8	0	0.25	1	5%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	1	0.16	1	4%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.10	3	4%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.