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Game Recap
ANA2
FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night
NYI5

NYI beat ANA 5-2, with the chances close: 3.69 expected goals to 3.20. A. Lee led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Trouba had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Rittich stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA0112
NYI3025
  1. 1st 8:18NYIT. Mitchell0.03 xG
  2. 1st 10:16NYIA. LeePP0.10 xG
  3. 1st 19:06NYIA. LeePP0.12 xG
  4. 2nd 5:34ANAL. Carlsson0.10 xG
  5. 3rd 2:37ANAT. TerrySH0.21 xG
  6. 3rd 6:06NYIS. Holmstrom0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 14:46NYIR. Pulock0.01 xG

Team Stats

ANANYI
33Shots on goal37
3.20Expected goals3.69
77Shot attempts67
265v5 shots on goal29
0/1Power play2/4
15Hits20
13Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways17
3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.20 xGNYI 3.69 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYI goal, 8:18NYI goal, 10:16NYI goal, 19:06ANA goal, 5:34ANA goal, 2:37NYI goal, 6:06NYI goal, 14:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA32 on goal, 2 scored
NYI36 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. TerryRW112200+1021:090:00
L. CarlssonC1013000022:050:00
R. PoehlingC0110000015:060:00
M. GranlundC000111-1017:500:00
C. KreiderLW000460-1217:030:00
C. GauthierLW000210-1016:260:39
B. SenneckeRW000200-1216:030:39
M. McTavishC000311-1014:550:33
F. VatranoRW0002100012:180:32
A. KillornLW0000000010:470:00
R. StromeC000000028:060:00
R. JohnstonLW000120-108:020:00
J. LaCombeD0113120225:300:06
O. ZellwegerD011012-2016:160:33
J. TroubaD000701+1025:140:01
D. HellesonD0000110018:200:06
R. GudasD000102-1015:320:00
P. MintyukovD0002030015:220:06
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso37325.86556:30Loss
V. Buteyets000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LeeLW224200+1016:231:18
S. HolmstromRW123201+2016:381:19
M. BarzalC011201-1023:484:39
J. PageauC011322+1015:431:04
M. ShabanovRW000201-1019:334:39
E. HeinemanLW0000300018:201:19
A. DuclairLW0003000216:384:39
C. CizikasC0001200013:360:07
C. RitchieC000201+1011:521:19
K. MacLeanC0000410011:000:07
M. GatcombC0003700010:210:07
B. HorvatC0002000010:013:36
T. DeAngeloD022100+1017:081:38
R. PulockD1014030021:370:00
A. PelechD011212+1020:320:07
S. MayfieldD011203+1016:460:00
T. MitchellD101311+1012:450:00
M. SchaeferD000302-1025:194:27
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich33312.93960:00Win
I. Sorokin000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson16:22T. Terry16:04C. Kreider14:33
Line 2M. McTavish12:57B. Sennecke12:44C. Gauthier12:52
Line 3M. Granlund12:48R. Poehling11:04F. Vatrano10:08
Line 4A. Killorn7:36R. Johnston8:02R. Strome7:17
Pair 1J. Trouba20:30J. LaCombe20:26
Pair 2P. Mintyukov13:30D. Helleson14:56
Pair 3R. Gudas12:09O. Zellweger13:37

NYI

Line 1E. Heineman15:05M. Shabanov14:54M. Barzal16:22
Line 2A. Lee11:10J. Pageau11:32S. Holmstrom12:07
Line 3A. Duclair11:59C. Ritchie10:33M. Gatcomb10:14
Line 4C. Cizikas11:39K. MacLean10:52
Pair 1M. Schaefer18:04R. Pulock17:28
Pair 2T. DeAngelo15:30A. Pelech16:57
Pair 3S. Mayfield14:53T. Mitchell12:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.9, NYI 3.1ANA 2, NYI 5
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalANA 28.7, NYI 31.5ANA 33, NYI 37
Win chanceNYI 54%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.620.94038%0
ANA C. Gauthier3.420.80028%0
NYI M. Schaefer3.130.79017%0
NYI M. Barzal2.820.99127%0
NYI A. Lee2.620.59426%2
ANA T. Terry2.420.77226%1
ANA C. Kreider2.440.68034%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.230.81127%1
ANA M. McTavish2.130.61022%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.020.74022%0
NYI T. DeAngelo2.010.5129%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.930.53111%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.920.37019%0
NYI E. Heineman1.900.52025%0
NYI A. Pelech1.920.3314%0
NYI M. Shabanov1.920.61019%0
ANA M. Granlund1.810.64017%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.700.3118%0
ANA A. Killorn1.600.40018%0
NYI R. Pulock1.640.4216%1
ANA J. Trouba1.570.2806%0
NYI A. Duclair1.430.45021%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.420.33015%0
NYI J. Pageau1.430.52118%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.330.31018%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.320.51322%1
ANA R. Poehling1.200.36114%0
ANA R. Strome1.200.32010%0
ANA R. Gudas1.110.2003%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.010.26010%0
ANA D. Helleson1.000.2406%0
NYI S. Mayfield1.020.1814%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.020.2605%0
NYI K. MacLean0.900.22010%0
ANA R. Johnston0.510.1505%0
NYI T. Mitchell0.430.1113%1

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.