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Game Recap
ANA2
FinalTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night
NYI3

NYI beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.35 expected goals to 1.82. NYI outshot ANA 25 to 17. L. Carlsson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). V. Eklund had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Sorokin stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA1012
NYI3003
  1. 1st 13:39NYIO. Palat0.16 xG
  2. 1st 16:28NYIV. Eklund0.40 xG
  3. 1st 17:18ANAF. Vatrano0.17 xG
  4. 1st 18:44NYIS. HolmstromPP0.12 xG
  5. 3rd 17:20ANAA. Killorn0.17 xG

Team Stats

ANANYI
17Shots on goal25
1.82Expected goals5.35
49Shot attempts76
155v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play1/4
22Hits19
24Blocked shots14
13Penalty minutes7
12Giveaways14
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.82 xGNYI 5.35 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdNYI goal, 13:39NYI goal, 16:28ANA goal, 17:18NYI goal, 18:44ANA goal, 17:20

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA17 on goal, 2 scored
NYI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC022200+1020:442:10
A. KillornLW1011000015:450:00
A. GreerLW011021+1512:090:00
F. VatranoRW101110+1010:120:00
B. SenneckeRW000311+1424:442:10
M. GranlundC0001010020:352:01
C. GauthierLW0002100017:282:07
T. WasheC0000510014:350:00
J. MalottLW0001020011:410:00
S. ColangeloRW000110-1010:430:00
N. NesterenkoC000111-1010:350:00
R. McQueenC000020-1210:310:03
J. LaCombeD011002+1227:552:05
T. HindsD000214-1022:430:09
T. LuneauD0002020020:090:05
D. HellesonD000033+1019:250:00
N. WarrenD000043-1015:360:00
P. MintyukovD0000030010:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal25223.88057:19Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HorvatC011310-1021:354:41
S. HolmstromRW101311-1020:114:33
J. PageauC011131+1017:160:00
O. PalatLW101110+1214:470:13
E. HeinemanLW0110200014:280:08
A. DuclairLW011100+1013:470:13
V. EklundRW1014210012:550:10
K. PalmieriC0003010019:144:46
B. SchennC0002000016:034:31
C. CizikasC0000000011:110:02
K. MacLeanC000150009:560:02
M. ChaffeeRW000110-159:130:02
M. SchaeferD011100-1026:204:46
M. KesselD011100+1013:570:00
A. PelechD0002050020:510:07
L. StanleyD0001000020:000:12
R. PulockD0000130019:400:02
T. DeAngeloD0000220014:360:07
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin17152.88260:00Win
S. Varlamov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund13:28B. Sennecke19:45J. Malott11:41
Line 2L. Carlsson15:07C. Gauthier12:50N. Nesterenko8:38
Line 3A. Greer11:57T. Washe10:29F. Vatrano10:12
Line 4A. Killorn9:51S. Colangelo10:43R. McQueen10:28
Pair 1D. Helleson16:31J. LaCombe21:11
Pair 2T. Hinds17:40N. Warren13:57
Pair 3T. Luneau17:06P. Mintyukov10:26

NYI

Line 1O. Palat14:28J. Pageau14:06A. Duclair12:37
Line 2B. Horvat14:04S. Holmstrom12:50K. Palmieri14:05
Line 3B. Schenn10:44E. Heineman11:09V. Eklund11:53
Line 4C. Cizikas10:10K. MacLean9:54M. Chaffee9:11
Pair 1A. Pelech18:29R. Pulock17:36
Pair 2L. Stanley16:22M. Schaefer17:09
Pair 3T. DeAngelo13:38M. Kessel13:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NYI B. Horvat3.5+140-1603Under
ANA C. Gauthier3.5+120-1502Under
ANA B. Sennecke2.5+115-1323Over
NYI K. Palmieri2.5+136-1603Over
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+130-1482Under
NYI M. Schaefer2.5-160+1251Under
NYI A. Duclair1.5+115-1551Under
ANA A. Killorn1.5+110-1401Under
NYI A. Pelech1.5+100-1302Over
NYI B. Schenn1.5-105+1002Over
NYI E. Heineman1.5-135+1150Under
ANA J. LaCombe1.5+105-1250Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-115-1151Under
ANA R. McQueen1.5-111-1050Under
NYI R. Pulock1.5+140-1900Under
NYI S. Holmstrom1.5+115-1453Over
NYI T. DeAngelo1.5+100-1100Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.7, NYI 3.1ANA 2, NYI 3
Total goals5.85
Shots on goalANA 27.3, NYI 27.9ANA 17, NYI 25
Win chanceNYI 58%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.331.02139%0
NYI M. Schaefer3.110.94123%0
ANA C. Gauthier2.820.61025%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.530.66025%0
NYI K. Palmieri2.430.79030%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.420.70225%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.010.39119%1
ANA M. Granlund1.810.67021%0
NYI B. Schenn1.820.76026%0
NYI E. Heineman1.800.40122%0
ANA A. Killorn1.810.42119%1
NYI T. DeAngelo1.600.4409%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.600.63110%0
ANA A. Greer1.600.34115%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.630.71128%1
NYI A. Pelech1.420.3105%0
NYI L. Stanley1.410.4208%0
NYI V. Eklund1.340.42116%1
NYI J. Pageau1.210.56120%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.200.29013%0
NYI A. Duclair1.210.43120%0
NYI O. Palat1.110.35116%1
ANA T. Luneau1.120.2706%0
NYI R. Pulock1.100.3307%0
ANA T. Hinds1.120.1203%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.000.2305%0
ANA T. Washe0.900.22011%0
ANA N. Warren0.900.2404%0
ANA J. Malott0.910.1506%0
NYI M. Chaffee0.810.22012%0
NYI K. MacLean0.810.1808%0
NYI M. Kessel0.710.1614%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.