Game Recap: ANA 1, SEA 3, October 9, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA1

FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

SEA3

SEA beat ANA 3-1, with the chances close: 2.45 expected goals to 2.45. J. Daccord stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	0	0	1
SEA	1	1	1	3

1st 2:21SEAV. Dunn0.04 xG
1st 4:11ANAB. Sennecke0.17 xG
2nd 3:50SEAM. Marchment0.19 xG
3rd 4:25SEAJ. McCann0.19 xG

Team Stats

ANASEA

36Shots on goal31

2.45Expected goals2.45

86Shot attempts50

315v5 shots on goal30

0/1Power play0/2

24Hits29

7Blocked shots26

4Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways22

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.45 xGSEA 2.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA35 on goal, 1 scored

SEA29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	20:24	0:49
B. Sennecke	RW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	17:24	0:54
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	2	19:17	0:51
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	18:29	1:09
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:42	1:11
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:49	1:09
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:29	1:06
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	0	15:00	0:51
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	3	2	-2	2	12:26	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:58	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:28	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	25:07	1:16
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:06	0:44
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	19:00	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	18:59	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	18:23	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	31	28	3	.903	57:01	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	19:09	2:16
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	18:41	2:11
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	18:24	2:13
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:32	1:44
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:26	1:49
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:02	2:18
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	15:45	1:34
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	14:52	1:43
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:49	0:03
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+1	0	12:02	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:04	0:01
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:52	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	4	3	+1	0	21:51	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	4	2	3	+1	0	21:18	1:51
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:54	2:09
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	21:07	0:08
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	+1	0	16:12	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish16:28C. Gauthier15:31B. Sennecke14:59

Line 2C. Kreider14:19L. Carlsson14:47T. Terry13:59

Line 3A. Killorn12:53M. Granlund13:18F. Vatrano11:22

Line 4R. Johnston8:28S. Colangelo8:38R. Poehling8:27

Pair 1O. Zellweger17:13J. Trouba17:21

Pair 2R. Gudas15:59J. LaCombe18:09

Pair 3P. Mintyukov15:42D. Helleson17:32

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:34M. Beniers14:56J. McCann14:05

Line 2J. Schwartz14:38S. Wright14:11E. Tolvanen13:09

Line 3C. Stephenson13:27M. Marchment14:23R. Winterton11:33

Line 4F. Gaudreau10:46T. Kartye9:15J. Nyman7:52

Pair 1R. Lindgren17:23B. Montour19:27

Pair 2A. Larsson19:32V. Dunn17:13

Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:51J. Mahura14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, SEA 3.4	ANA 1, SEA 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	ANA 26.6, SEA 31.7	ANA 36, SEA 31
Win chance	SEA 60%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	3.2	4	0.60	1	18%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.8	3	0.81	1	30%	1
ANA M. McTavish	2.6	2	0.73	1	25%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.5	3	0.57	0	25%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.5	5	0.58	0	21%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.5	0	0.62	1	25%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.4	4	0.69	1	14%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.4	1	0.74	0	26%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.2	2	0.63	1	24%	1
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	2	0.69	1	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	2	0.48	0	23%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	1	0.59	1	24%	0
SEA J. Nyman	2.0	0	0.49	0	18%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.9	1	0.55	0	28%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	4	0.63	0	22%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	3	0.31	0	8%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	4	0.54	0	22%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.7	2	0.56	0	12%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.7	1	0.34	1	8%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.6	0	0.60	0	15%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.5	0	0.67	0	25%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	1	0.25	0	5%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.4	0	0.42	0	22%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.4	3	0.15	0	9%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.4	1	0.47	0	17%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	2	0.38	0	17%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.3	2	0.26	0	7%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.3	2	0.25	0	4%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.76	0	22%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.1	3	0.22	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	1.1	1	0.29	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	1	0.28	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.11	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.