Game Recap: ANA 4, SEA 2, January 23, 2026

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Game Recap

ANA4

FinalFri, Jan 23, 2026Every game that night

SEA2

ANA beat SEA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.69 expected goals to 1.93. ANA outshot SEA 31 to 22. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Gauthier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. L. Dostal stopped 20 of 22.

Team Stats

ANASEA

31Shots on goal22

2.69Expected goals1.93

60Shot attempts50

255v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play0/2

25Hits21

10Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways12

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.69 xGSEA 1.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA29 on goal, 3 scored

SEA22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	7	2	0	+1	0	17:13	2:31
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:51	2:29
R. Poehling	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	18:13	0:20
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:48	2:33
J. Viel	LW	0	1	1	4	5	1	+1	0	15:57	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:17	0:18
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	14:13	0:00
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:54	2:38
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:47	0:01
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	10:44	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	10:11	0:19
P. Mintyukov	D	1	1	2	3	1	2	+2	0	20:27	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	22:54	2:48
D. Helleson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	18:47	0:00
I. Moore	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:19	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	22:32	0:05
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:43	0:04
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	16:10	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:05	1:31
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	17:51	1:18
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	16:34	1:16
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:44	2:12
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:21	2:14
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:11	2:14
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	0	15:54	1:16
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	15:34	1:59
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:37	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:25	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:20	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	0	10	0	0	0	10:30	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	2	27:54	2:23
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	24:09	1:07
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:34	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	2	16:32	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:05	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+2	0	14:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	30	27	3	.900	58:41	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1J. Viel15:41R. Poehling15:17C. Gauthier14:10

Line 2A. Killorn13:31M. Granlund13:54B. Sennecke11:16

Line 3R. Johnston12:25T. Washe12:11

Line 4C. Kreider13:33J. Harkins10:44R. Strome9:52

Pair 1J. Trouba18:57J. LaCombe19:29

Pair 2P. Mintyukov16:52D. Helleson18:05

Pair 3R. Gudas14:49O. Zellweger15:32

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle16:19M. Beniers15:22J. McCann14:36

Line 2K. Kakko12:20S. Wright12:29J. Schwartz11:33

Line 3C. Stephenson12:47B. Catton13:37E. Tolvanen12:10

Line 4R. Winterton11:41F. Gaudreau11:42J. Melanson10:30

Pair 1J. Oleksiak15:21B. Montour23:31

Pair 2A. Larsson15:42V. Dunn20:55

Pair 3R. Evans16:02R. Lindgren12:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 3.2, SEA 3.3	ANA 4, SEA 2
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	ANA 29.3, SEA 27.7	ANA 31, SEA 22
Win chance	SEA 52%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.0	7	0.68	2	26%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.7	2	0.59	0	17%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	2.4	1	0.79	0	25%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.79	1	30%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.1	3	0.68	0	13%	0
ANA M. Granlund	2.1	2	0.75	1	21%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	1	0.69	1	25%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	1	0.48	0	22%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	1	0.57	1	23%	1
ANA J. Trouba	2.0	0	0.35	0	8%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	1	0.66	1	24%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	1	0.54	1	10%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	3	0.58	0	23%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.8	1	0.55	1	29%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	2	0.28	0	7%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	0	0.36	0	9%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	2	0.52	1	18%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	2	0.48	1	19%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	1	0.43	0	18%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	3	0.38	2	9%	1
ANA R. Poehling	1.2	1	0.41	1	15%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.71	0	22%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.2	2	0.38	0	12%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.1	4	0.16	1	10%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	1	0.21	0	3%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	0	0.26	0	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	0	0.30	0	11%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.27	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	2	0.16	0	8%	0
ANA I. Moore	0.8	1	0.17	1	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	0.8	1	0.20	1	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	1	0.31	0	6%	0
ANA T. Washe	0.7	1	0.21	0	12%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.