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Game Recap
ANA7
Final/OTSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night
SJS6

ANA beat SJS 7-6 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.22 expected goals to 2.47. ANA outshot SJS 44 to 23. L. Carlsson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Gauthier had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. P. Mrazek stopped 17 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
ANA22217
SJS23106
  1. 1st 3:40SJST. Toffoli0.15 xG
  2. 1st 11:12SJSR. Reaves0.22 xG
  3. 1st 11:53ANAC. Gauthier0.12 xG
  4. 1st 15:14ANAB. SenneckePP0.55 xG
  5. 2nd 5:21SJSM. Ferraro0.31 xG
  6. 2nd 6:19ANAA. Killorn0.18 xG
  7. 2nd 10:34SJSJ. KlingbergPP0.14 xG
  8. 2nd 17:14SJSA. GaudettePP0.10 xG
  9. 2nd 19:29ANAC. KreiderPP0.42 xG
  10. 3rd 5:34SJSJ. Skinner0.08 xG
  11. 3rd 10:29ANAC. Gauthier0.09 xG
  12. 3rd 19:09ANAC. Kreider0.03 xG
  13. OT 0:46ANAL. Carlsson0.10 xG

Team Stats

ANASJS
44Shots on goal23
5.22Expected goals2.47
83Shot attempts42
305v5 shots on goal17
2/4Power play2/4
24Hits20
12Blocked shots18
13Penalty minutes13
14Giveaways19
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 5.22 xGSJS 2.47 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTSJS goal, 3:40SJS goal, 11:12ANA goal, 11:53ANA goal, 15:14SJS goal, 5:21ANA goal, 6:19SJS goal, 10:34SJS goal, 17:14ANA goal, 19:29SJS goal, 5:34ANA goal, 10:29ANA goal, 19:09ANA goal, 0:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA42 on goal, 7 scored
SJS22 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. McTavishC0335200220:502:26
L. CarlssonC123300+2019:424:44
M. GranlundC022001+2020:414:40
C. GauthierLW2029210019:282:23
B. SenneckeRW112520-1019:142:28
T. TerryRW022300+2017:284:44
C. KreiderLW202520+1017:084:28
A. KillornLW1017300018:242:39
F. VatranoRW0001310212:020:00
R. PoehlingC000000-127:410:00
N. NesterenkoC000020-105:570:00
R. JohnstonLW000010-155:360:00
R. GudasD011223-2019:590:00
O. ZellwegerD011111+1219:561:49
J. LaCombeD000111+1027:325:19
J. TroubaD000132+3018:150:00
D. HellesonD000002-1015:140:00
P. MintyukovD000100-1011:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Mrazek23176.73959:49Win
L. Dostal000–0:00

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC0331000020:233:31
W. SmithC033300+1018:143:21
A. GaudetteRW112110+128:412:12
A. WennbergC011001-2019:393:08
T. DellandreaC0110610016:350:00
T. ToffoliC101300-1015:082:35
J. SkinnerLW1013100010:102:25
R. ReavesRW101110+156:050:00
P. KurashevC000110+1019:552:22
W. EklundLW000300-3017:323:18
C. GrafRW0000010014:010:00
B. GoodrowC000032+1013:470:00
D. OrlovD022351+1221:572:12
M. FerraroD1012050022:210:00
J. KlingbergD101101-1219:113:31
N. LeddyD011002-2018:200:00
T. LiljegrenD0001240221:210:00
S. DickinsonD000000+1011:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
Y. Askarov44377.84160:37OT loss
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1C. Gauthier15:41B. Sennecke15:32M. McTavish16:23
Line 2C. Kreider12:31L. Carlsson11:45T. Terry10:16
Line 3M. Granlund11:39F. Vatrano10:59A. Killorn13:35
Line 4R. Poehling7:16N. Nesterenko5:57R. Johnston5:36
Pair 1J. Trouba16:03O. Zellweger17:28
Pair 2R. Gudas15:37J. LaCombe16:16
Pair 3P. Mintyukov11:49D. Helleson13:02

SJS

Line 1P. Kurashev15:27M. Celebrini14:52W. Smith14:37
Line 2T. Toffoli11:52W. Eklund12:26A. Wennberg13:02
Line 3T. Dellandrea12:23C. Graf10:44J. Skinner7:45
Line 4R. Reaves6:05B. Goodrow10:38A. Gaudette6:29
Pair 1T. Liljegren17:25M. Ferraro17:02
Pair 2N. Leddy14:41J. Klingberg14:24
Pair 3D. Orlov15:34S. Dickinson11:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJacob Trouba SJS First game against ANA since he left (his team until May 2026)1 SOG
  • Old teamMikael Granlund ANA Faces SJS, his team until Jan 20252 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.3, SJS 3.1ANA 7, SJS 6
Total goals6.413
Shots on goalANA 29.5, SJS 30.3ANA 44, SJS 23
Win chanceANA 53%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.410.89328%0
SJS T. Toffoli3.230.80133%1
ANA C. Gauthier2.990.70225%2
ANA M. McTavish2.850.86329%0
ANA F. Vatrano2.610.63027%0
ANA T. Terry2.530.84229%0
SJS W. Smith2.330.80326%0
SJS J. Skinner2.130.57125%1
ANA C. Kreider2.150.66233%2
SJS W. Eklund2.130.73021%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.030.74325%1
ANA O. Zellweger2.010.38110%0
ANA A. Killorn1.970.62125%1
ANA J. LaCombe1.910.68015%0
SJS D. Orlov1.930.43210%0
SJS T. Liljegren1.810.3709%0
SJS J. Klingberg1.810.4318%1
ANA M. Granlund1.700.71218%0
ANA J. Trouba1.510.3006%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.500.29016%0
SJS C. Graf1.500.35016%0
ANA D. Helleson1.400.3109%0
ANA R. Poehling1.400.50018%0
SJS M. Ferraro1.420.2616%1
ANA R. Gudas1.420.2915%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.400.55117%0
SJS P. Kurashev1.210.40014%0
SJS A. Gaudette1.110.31216%1
SJS T. Dellandrea1.100.2319%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.010.3306%0
SJS B. Goodrow1.000.22011%0
SJS N. Leddy0.800.2514%0
SJS R. Reaves0.510.1316%1
ANA R. Johnston0.500.1205%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.