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Game Recap
ANA4
FinalMon, Dec 1, 2025Every game that night
STL1

ANA beat STL 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.44 expected goals to 3.01. P. Mintyukov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Husso stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA2024
STL1001
  1. 1st 6:33ANAM. McTavish0.01 xG
  2. 1st 6:53STLJ. Kyrou0.28 xG
  3. 1st 10:24ANAP. Mintyukov0.04 xG
  4. 3rd 5:58ANAL. Carlsson0.11 xG
  5. 3rd 17:23ANAC. KreiderEN0.75 xG

Team Stats

ANASTL
26Shots on goal22
2.44Expected goals3.01
50Shot attempts58
215v5 shots on goal16
0/3Power play0/6
17Hits15
22Blocked shots8
12Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.44 xGSTL 3.01 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdANA goal, 6:33STL goal, 6:53ANA goal, 10:24ANA goal, 5:58ANA goal, 17:23

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA25 on goal, 4 scored
STL22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. CarlssonC112100+1017:393:23
C. KreiderLW101203+1017:343:27
B. SenneckeRW011200+2014:581:07
M. McTavishC101402+2214:172:12
C. GauthierLW000210+2217:240:50
T. TerryRW000300+1216:503:28
A. KillornLW0001010216:020:34
R. PoehlingC0002040015:420:00
F. VatranoRW0002210215:071:48
J. HarkinsC0000310011:500:00
R. JohnstonLW000030028:370:00
P. MintyukovD112302+2020:420:00
R. GudasD011043+2017:190:18
I. MooreD0110100011:500:00
J. LaCombeD000122+1020:582:35
J. TroubaD0001110019:490:05
D. HellesonD000202+1019:230:00
O. ZellwegerD0000000011:591:43
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso22211.95560:00Win
V. Buteyets000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. ThomasC0112000020:366:34
J. KyrouRW1013300018:444:58
J. NeighboursLW011011-1015:343:50
D. DvorskyRW000210-2219:345:24
P. BuchnevichLW000300-1019:286:31
B. SchennC000120-1019:193:40
D. HollowayLW000101-2017:393:44
O. SundqvistC000000-1414:026:12
N. BjugstadC000120-1013:410:03
M. JosephRW0000110013:230:03
N. WalkerLW000051-1012:210:03
J. FaulkD000300-2021:054:17
C. FowlerD000200-1020:585:37
C. ParaykoD000101-1019:100:10
P. BrobergD0001000018:590:24
L. MaillouxD000102-2014:380:00
M. KesselD0001000012:470:00
T. TuckerD000001003:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Binnington532.60010:24Loss
J. Hofer20191.95048:16

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1T. Terry11:57L. Carlsson12:13C. Kreider9:52
Line 2B. Sennecke13:12M. McTavish11:02C. Gauthier13:52
Line 3A. Killorn11:13F. Vatrano10:54R. Poehling10:59
Line 4R. Johnston8:32J. Harkins9:25
Pair 1D. Helleson14:33J. LaCombe16:06
Pair 2R. Gudas12:20P. Mintyukov13:40
Pair 3J. Trouba12:37O. Zellweger9:34

STL

Line 1N. Bjugstad12:49M. Joseph12:31N. Walker10:27
Line 2J. Kyrou12:26J. Neighbours10:13R. Thomas10:20
Line 3B. Schenn14:38P. Buchnevich9:23D. Dvorsky14:10
Line 4O. Sundqvist6:46D. Holloway12:22
Pair 1C. Parayko16:02P. Broberg15:20
Pair 2C. Fowler13:50L. Mailloux14:08
Pair 3J. Faulk12:43M. Kessel12:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamMason McTavish STL First game against ANA since he left (his team until May 2026)1 G, 4 SOG
  • Old teamCam Fowler STL Faces ANA, his team until Dec 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.8, STL 3.4ANA 4, STL 1
Total goals6.15
Shots on goalANA 26.7, STL 28.8ANA 26, STL 22
Win chanceSTL 61%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
ANA C. Gauthier3.420.83029%0
STL J. Kyrou2.730.81133%1
ANA T. Terry2.430.80027%0
STL D. Holloway2.310.73026%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.210.83227%1
ANA C. Kreider2.120.64133%1
STL P. Buchnevich2.030.84028%0
STL J. Faulk1.930.52010%0
STL R. Thomas1.821.11127%0
ANA M. McTavish1.840.55120%1
ANA O. Zellweger1.800.3109%0
STL N. Bjugstad1.710.35017%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.710.53012%0
STL C. Parayko1.710.47011%0
STL B. Schenn1.710.64023%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.720.32017%0
STL P. Broberg1.610.50011%0
ANA B. Sennecke1.620.61119%0
STL C. Fowler1.620.64010%0
ANA A. Killorn1.410.41018%0
STL J. Neighbours1.400.61126%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.420.32017%0
ANA J. Trouba1.410.2806%0
STL M. Joseph1.300.38012%0
STL N. Walker1.200.35015%0
ANA R. Gudas1.000.1713%0
STL L. Mailloux1.010.2806%0
ANA R. Poehling1.020.33013%0
ANA D. Helleson1.020.2506%0
STL O. Sundqvist0.900.35011%0
ANA I. Moore0.900.2016%0
STL T. Tucker0.900.1806%0
ANA P. Mintyukov0.930.2425%1
STL M. Kessel0.610.1604%0
ANA J. Harkins0.600.1006%0
ANA R. Johnston0.400.1204%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.