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Game Recap
ANA3
TBL4
TBL beat ANA 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.85 expected goals to 2.72. A. Cirelli led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Gauthier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Johansson stopped 37 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| TBL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 9:10TBLJ. Guentzel0.28 xG
- 2nd 4:42ANAJ. Trouba0.07 xG
- 2nd 12:19TBLJ. Guentzel0.10 xG
- 2nd 14:20TBLA. Cirelli0.03 xG
- 3rd 7:11ANAR. Poehling0.09 xG
- 3rd 8:10ANAT. Terry0.32 xG
- 3rd 16:45TBLA. CirelliPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
ANATBL
40Shots on goal33
2.72Expected goals4.85
63Shot attempts71
315v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play1/6
14Hits21
17Blocked shots15
19Penalty minutes11
10Giveaways23
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.72 xGTBL 4.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:49 | 2:19 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:20 | 2:18 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 18:01 | 0:16 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:19 | 0:15 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:16 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:14 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 2:18 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:07 | 2:20 |
| J. Trouba | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:26 | 2:18 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:07 | 0:16 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Cirelli | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 4:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:28 | 8:14 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 8:14 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:29 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 8:12 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:53 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 4:23 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:53 |
| P. Holmberg | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:31 | 0:04 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:46 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:20 | 7:48 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:02 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 18:45 | 0:04 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:19 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Johansson | 40 | 37 | 3 | .925 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Vasilevskiy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1C. Gauthier16:10L. Carlsson16:21A. Killorn13:38
Line 2M. McTavish15:55B. Sennecke14:47N. Nesterenko14:39
Line 3R. Johnston6:30R. Poehling10:50S. Colangelo8:11
Line 4M. Granlund2:53T. Terry12:46
Pair 1J. Trouba21:24O. Zellweger13:01
Pair 2P. Mintyukov16:41D. Helleson15:04
Pair 3J. LaCombe17:37I. Moore10:22
TBL
Line 1A. Cirelli14:40B. Hagel16:14J. Guentzel14:13
Line 2Y. Gourde12:16P. Holmberg10:27Z. Girgensons11:22
Line 3N. Kucherov12:30B. Point11:32
Line 4D. James14:01O. Bjorkstrand10:11G. Goncalves10:36
Pair 1R. McDonagh17:54E. Cernak17:23
Pair 3C. D'Astous13:07E. Lilleberg11:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.8, TBL 3.7 | ANA 3, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.3, TBL 30.5 | ANA 40, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | TBL 63% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.3 | 6 | 1.66 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 3.2 | 6 | 1.16 | 2 | 41% | 2 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.0 | 7 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 0 | 0.96 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 5 | 1.11 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.5 | 3 | 0.95 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.3 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 4 | 0.67 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.1 | 3 | 0.74 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.9 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.4 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 0.9 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.