Game Recap: ANA 2, TOR 3, December 12, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA2

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

TOR3

TOR beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 1.90. M. Pacioretty led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. McGinn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Woll stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	1	1	0	2
TOR	2	1	0	3

1st 6:57TORM. Pacioretty0.18 xG
1st 14:17TORW. Nylander0.11 xG
1st 15:56ANAF. VatranoPP0.07 xG
2nd 12:54TORM. Pacioretty0.07 xG
2nd 13:59ANAJ. LaCombe0.07 xG

Team Stats

ANATOR

28Shots on goal33

1.90Expected goals4.01

45Shot attempts68

215v5 shots on goal31

1/1Power play0/2

22Hits16

16Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways14

3Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.90 xGTOR 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA26 on goal, 2 scored

TOR33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Strome	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	16:01	1:03
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:33	1:03
F. Vatrano	RW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	17:11	1:03
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	-2	0	16:21	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	16:11	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:27	1:03
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	15:21	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:32	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:32	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:09	0:00
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	-1	0	11:04	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:24	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	22:24	1:03
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	0	21:21	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	20:47	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	2	19:10	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:48	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	-1	2	17:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	33	30	3	.909	59:01	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Pacioretty	LW	2	1	3	3	3	1	+3	0	18:32	1:07
J. Tavares	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	19:01	2:12
W. Nylander	RW	1	0	1	7	0	0	+3	0	21:25	3:36
A. Matthews	C	0	0	0	6	1	2	-1	0	21:10	3:09
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:31	2:53
M. Marner	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	19:53	3:21
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:28	1:48
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	13:22	0:24
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:30	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:16	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:12	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:03	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	20:07	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	19:50	0:39
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:31	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	18:50	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:42	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	18:34	0:51

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	8	7	1	.875	20:00
J. Woll	20	19	1	.950	40:00	Win

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Stolarz TOR Faces ANA, his team until Feb 20237 saves on 8

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.5, TOR 3.8	ANA 2, TOR 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	ANA 26.1, TOR 33.6	ANA 28, TOR 33
Win chance	TOR 70%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.7	6	1.41	0	52%	0
TOR W. Nylander	3.9	7	1.28	1	43%	1
TOR J. Tavares	3.8	1	1.04	2	37%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.2	5	0.59	1	28%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.6	4	1.49	0	36%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	2	0.73	1	27%	0
TOR M. Rielly	2.2	1	0.74	1	12%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.1	2	0.74	0	29%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	2.1	3	0.59	3	20%	2
TOR M. Domi	2.0	1	0.70	0	18%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.9	2	0.47	0	9%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	2	0.41	0	14%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	0	0.51	0	21%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	2	0.49	2	17%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	4	0.50	0	19%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.5	1	0.34	0	15%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	1	0.24	0	5%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.4	2	0.41	0	21%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	0	0.38	0	16%	0
TOR F. Minten	1.3	1	0.37	0	16%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	0	0.32	0	6%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.19	0	4%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.1	0	0.34	0	5%	0
TOR C. Timmins	1.1	1	0.39	1	6%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	2	0.35	1	7%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	1.0	0	0.38	0	15%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.0	6	0.23	0	13%	0
TOR S. Benoit	1.0	1	0.14	0	3%	0
TOR C. Dewar	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.23	0	12%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	0.9	3	0.22	2	5%	1
TOR C. Tanev	0.8	0	0.29	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
TOR R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.16	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.