Game Recap: ANA 5, UTA 4 (SO), December 22, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA5

Final/SOSun, Dec 22, 2024Every game that night

UTA4

ANA beat UTA 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.29 expected goals to 3.93. C. Keller led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). N. Schmaltz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Dostal stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
ANA	1	1	2	1	5
UTA	2	2	0	0	4

1st 1:26UTAC. Keller0.31 xG
1st 4:56ANAR. Fabbri0.12 xG
1st 16:09UTAB. Hayton0.11 xG
2nd 2:39UTAL. CooleyPP0.14 xG
2nd 5:57UTAC. Keller0.25 xG
2nd 10:49ANAI. Lundestrom0.15 xG
3rd 12:35ANAR. Fabbri0.35 xG
3rd 15:15ANAB. LeasonPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

ANAUTA

30Shots on goal25

2.29Expected goals3.93

66Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal18

1/6Power play1/5

19Hits13

20Blocked shots25

10Penalty minutes12

8Giveaways17

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.29 xGUTA 3.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA30 on goal, 4 scored

UTA25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Fabbri	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	2	18:45	3:23
C. Gauthier	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	2	17:06	2:45
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	2	20:21	2:34
I. Lundestrom	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	12:46	0:02
B. Leason	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:14	0:40
J. Harkins	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	9:34	0:02
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	21:06	4:59
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	2	18:54	4:57
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-2	0	18:25	5:10
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:54	3:36
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:41	3:06
O. Zellweger	D	0	2	2	4	0	3	-1	0	21:24	2:30
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	11:50	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	25:53	4:24
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	22:32	0:04
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	18:08	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	25	21	4	.840	65:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Keller	RW	2	2	4	5	0	2	+3	0	22:23	5:25
B. Hayton	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	0	13:35	0:00
N. Schmaltz	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+2	0	21:33	5:23
L. Cooley	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	4	18:08	5:26
D. Guenther	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:18	5:22
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	15:00	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:56	0:47
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	13:38	0:05
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	12:42	0:46
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	12:29	0:44
M. Carcone	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:51	0:44
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	11:13	0:00
M. Sergachev	D	0	2	2	1	1	5	+1	0	31:03	5:12
O. Maatta	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	21:05	0:00
J. Välimäki	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	15:15	0:13
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	0	23:46	0:03
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	17:11	0:50
D. Mermis	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	2	10:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Stauber	30	26	4	.867	64:23	OT loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.8, UTA 3.6	ANA 5, UTA 4
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	ANA 27.2, UTA 31.5	ANA 30, UTA 25
Win chance	UTA 63%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	2.9	4	0.58	0	28%	0
UTA C. Keller	2.7	5	1.07	4	34%	2
UTA D. Guenther	2.5	1	0.90	0	32%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.2	2	0.71	0	26%	0
UTA L. Cooley	2.2	1	0.84	1	25%	1
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	5	0.92	1	27%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	2.0	1	0.82	2	14%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	2	0.38	2	14%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.7	4	0.29	2	8%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.7	1	0.42	0	19%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	1	0.46	2	17%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.6	1	0.52	0	22%	0
UTA M. Carcone	1.6	0	0.38	0	20%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.6	2	0.43	0	9%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.6	2	0.48	1	19%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	1	0.48	0	16%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.6	0	0.42	0	21%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	2	0.26	0	5%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	2	0.33	1	15%	1
ANA R. Fabbri	1.4	3	0.43	2	21%	2
UTA M. Maccelli	1.4	1	0.57	0	16%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.3	0	0.39	0	17%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.3	1	0.26	0	15%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.2	1	0.47	0	15%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	1	0.29	1	6%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
UTA O. Maatta	1.1	1	0.32	1	7%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.1	0	0.28	1	5%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.1	1	0.24	0	13%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.0	1	0.48	0	18%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
UTA D. Mermis	0.9	2	0.16	0	5%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.21	1	11%	1
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	1	0.15	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.